015
FXUS62 KMHX 111107
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COOL AND BREEZY TODAY
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ENC
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFFSHORE AND
THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH LITTLE CLOUDS. BREEZY SW
WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S
MOST AREAS TO LOWER 50S SOUTH COAST. CAA WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH CAA CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING BREEZY NW WINDS, STRONGEST THROUGH
MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE FROM WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COLD, INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS OF 1 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
BUT WILL BE SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE
30S AFTER SUNSET BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP INHIBIT
ADDITIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S INLAND TO 30S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT ANY PRECIP ACROSS
ENC. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS
WHERE CLOUDS WON'T BE AS THICK, WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BRINGING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS PRECIP COVERAGE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN TO INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS ENC. ANY PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS RAIN BUT THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO THINK
ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY GIVING THE
INCONSISTENCY AMONG GUIDANCE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY.
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS SUNDAY IN MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CAA CONTINUES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS INLAND
TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
MID-MORNING MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 605 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING LEAVING W TO
NW'RLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE WINDS
TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 10Z. AFTER SUNSET WINDS EASE AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS ENC. NORMALLY THIS
WOULD PROMOTE SOME KIND OF FOG THREAT FOR THE AREA BUT WITH
AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
DON'T EXPECT ANY FOG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ENC TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT TO
ALL OF THIS IS ACROSS THE OBX WHERE A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS CLOSER TO ABOUT 3-5 KFT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH A LOW END
CHANCE AT SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ACROSS ENC AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WOULD RETURN ON
MONDAY REGARDLESS.
MARINE
AS OF 605 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
WINDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 KTS AND AS
A RESULT HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNINGS. HOWEVER, AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO
BUMP UP AFTER SUNRISE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 25-30 KTS. GIVEN
THIS HAVE REPLACED ALL GALE WARNINGS WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO OUT THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH ALL SMALL CRAFTS ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISC...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CURRENTLY SEEING 15-25 KT WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUNDS BUT SEEING GALES
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER MIXING IS OCCURRING. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT NORTHERN WATERS AND 5-9 FT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BY DAWN WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
AROUND 2-3 FT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY HELP TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENTS SOME BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
POTENT ARCTIC FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...SK/MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
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