470
FXUS62 KMHX 120538
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH NOTABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FRIDAY MORNING
- NOT QUITE AS COLD ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES,
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT, THEN SWING EAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERLAPPED WITH NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE
ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THAT AREA, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
AFTER THE MORNING FLURRIES, A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT
NORTH INTO ENC, BUT WILL PROBABLY STALL ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH.
SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONT REACHES, HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S, WHILE HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH.
IT WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST FROM HATTERAS SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY'S STALLED FRONT SHOULD GET A KICK NORTH ON SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. IT WON'T LAST LONG, BUT THIS SHOULD PUT MOST, IF NOT ALL,
OF ENC IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS PRECIP COVERAGE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN TO INCREASE POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS ENC. ANY PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS RAIN BUT THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW,
BRIEFLY, BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS SUNDAY IN MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CAA CONTINUES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS INLAND
TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
MID-MORNING MONDAY. SHOULD THE LATEST TRENDS HOLD, THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, INCLUDING DOWN TO THE COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH FRI EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS ACROSS ENC. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF ENC THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE DRY
AIRMASS AND SCT CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH FRI MORNING
THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDCOVER, THOUGH CEILINGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL ABOVE 7-9 KFT. GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF CLOUDCOVER WILL LIKELY BE FROM HWY 264 NORTH. WITH THIS IN
MIND, A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT AROUND THIS AREA FRI.
THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACT IS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF ENC THROUGH FRI AND INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WITH MO CLEAR SKIES WE
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS THREAT HAS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF
OCCURING AND WOULD HAPPEN AFTER 06Z SAT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. SO
FOR NOW IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN ANY OF THE TAFS BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND INCLUDE IT IF NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH A
LOW END CHANCE AT SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY ACROSS ENC AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY, WITH PRED VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING A QUICK ROUND OF 20-25KT WIND GUSTS
FRIDAY
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH 30-40KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY
THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME,
WHICH IS ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY DOWN. IN LIGHT OF THIS,
THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. BY FRIDAY MORNING, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
2-3FT.
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 10-20KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25KT, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WORST-
CASE SCENARIO. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM. EVEN IF THERE WAS A PERIOD OF 25KT
WINDS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE SHORTER LIVED. MODEST SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS THEN CONTINUE ON INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 3-4FT ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH 2-3FT ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT ARCTIC FRONT IS SET TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SK/MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/SK
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