691
FXUS62 KMHX 121127
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
627 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH NOTABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY. STRONG WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE WILL BE LIMITED TIME FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERLAPPED WITH NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS TO SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE OF A NOVELTY
WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS.
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH INTO ENC, BUT WILL
PROBABLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SOUTH OF WHERE THE
FRONT REACHES, HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 50S,
WHILE HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SKIES BECOME CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE STALLED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A DESCENT WARMUP ON SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S
NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS PRECIP COVERAGE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS NOW
GONE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, NOW WITH DECREASING POPS AND
COVERAGE ACROSS ENC. ANY PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN BUT THE
COLUMN COOLS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW, BRIEFLY, BEFORE ENDING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS SUNDAY IN MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S COAST BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CAA CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS INLAND TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY. SHOULD THE
LATEST TRENDS HOLD, THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING DOWN TO
THE COAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S TUESDAY, 50S ON WEDNESDAY, AND 60S ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE CLIPPER MAKES ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH FRI MORNING THERE WILL BE INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDCOVER, THOUGH CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL
ABOVE 7-9 KFT. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AROUND THE AREA FRI, THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACT IS FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF ENC THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH MO CLEAR SKIES WE TURN
OUR ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS THREAT HAS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF OCCURING AND
WOULD HAPPEN AFTER 06Z SAT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. SO FOR NOW IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN ANY OF THE TAFS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND INCLUDE IT IF NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH A
LOW END CHANCE AT SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY ACROSS ENC AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY, WITH PRED VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH 30-40KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE NOW LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT. LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS, ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS SE VA. A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF WITH HOW FAR NORTH IT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND
SUBSEQUENTLY NO LONGER DEVELOPS THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 5-15 KT,
STRONGEST SOUTH OF HATTERAS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT ARCTIC FRONT IS SET TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/SK
SHORT TERM...RM/SK
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/SK
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