572
FXUS62 KMHX 130546
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 2 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ENC, BUT WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
- CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND
AN OVERPERFORMING CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS KEPT THE AREA CLOUDY ALL
DAY, AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS ENC. WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40S, NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING, AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S INLAND
TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY MORNING. SOME WIND WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST, KEEPING LOWS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 2 PM FRI...HEIGHTS WILL RISE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS (BRIEFLY) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS PRECIP COVERAGE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS NOW
GONE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, NOW WITH DECREASING POPS AND
COVERAGE ACROSS ENC. ANY PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN BUT THE
COLUMN COOLS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW, BRIEFLY, BEFORE ENDING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS SUNDAY IN MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S COAST BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS. CAA CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS INLAND TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE COAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S TUESDAY, 50S ON WEDNESDAY, AND 60S ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ALL OF ENC AS OF THIS UPDATE
AS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OVERHEAD THE MID-ATLANTIC. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TERMINALS THOUGH
THIS MORNING BUT NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
GROUND FOG. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY ON SAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW CALM WINDS TO BECOME
SW'RLY AT ABOUT 5KTS OR SO BY MID MORNING SAT. AS WE GET INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, A COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TO
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. REGARDLESS CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 20 KFT INTO 06Z SUN.
OUTLOOK: INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z SUN INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWERED
VISIBILITY AS WELL. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MON. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR WINDS NNW 30-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-45 KTS
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO
EAST TONIGHT AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS. SW
WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS, AND THEN TO
15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SWITCH THE NW AND
STRENGTHEN TO 25-35 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO 6-10 FT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
BECOME W TUESDAY AT 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SW
WEDNESDAY AT 10-20 KTS STILL. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 3-5 FT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK
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