883
FXUS62 KMHX 131128
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AS SWRLY WINDS INC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS (BRIEFLY) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S
INLAND. THE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP THE BEACHES CHILLY IN
THE 55-60 RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...MUCH WARMER TONIGHT AS WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 45-50 RANGE
NORTHERN TIER TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
FA BY MORNING, THUS THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE REALIZED AROUND
SUNRISE MON, WHEREIN TEMPS FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY MON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHARPLY FALLING
TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-15 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE
A BIT DRIER THAN NBM, SO OVERLY EAGER NBM POPS HAVE BEEN TONED
DOWN TO THE 50-70% RANGE, HIGHEST CHANCES SRN AND ERN AREAS.
BULK OF PRECIP IS RAIN, BUT A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO MAY MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END IN THE AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS
WITH WARM GROUND IN PLACE AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING
SUNDAY, BEFORE PLUNGING THROUGH THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG CAA, AND IT
WILL FEEL QUITE RAW BY LATE DAY. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR WILL BE REALIZED SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. GUIDANCE AND
THICKNESSES SUGGEST LOWS 15-20 INTERIOR ZONES, WITH 20S OBX
ZONES. VERY WELL MIXED ATMS WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM REACHING
THEIR LOWEST POTENTIAL, AND WHERE NBM IS USUALLY TOO WARM ON
LOWS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING, IT TENDS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
TOO WARM ON WELL MIXED NIGHTS. HAVE FCST A MULTI MODEL MOS BLEND
AS A RESULT. WITH THE WIND IN PLACE, APPARENT T'S WILL REACH THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST, AND LIKELY A COLD WX
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND BRISK TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. BREEZIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WINDS ABATE LATER IN THE DAY.
MON NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, AND WITH VERY DRY ATMS
AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE, WITH TEENS INTERIOR ZONES AND 20S NEARER THE COAST.
LIGHT RETURN FLOW MAY KICK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS
LEVELING OFF.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY (20%) AND THURSDAY
NIGHT (30-40%)WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S TUESDAY, 50S ON WEDNESDAY,
AND 60S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING. TROUGH WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE AND
THICKNESSES/HTS DON'T DROP TOO DRASTICALLY. THEREFORE TEMPS WILL
CONT MILD BEHIND THE FROPA, WITH ABOVE CLIMO READINGS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUNDAY
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING. THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EWN AS SOME GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
HERE. CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS GROUND
FOG. BUT, EITHER WAY NO IMPACT TO OPERATIONS IS FORECAST AS ANY
GROUND FOG THAT IS OCCURING HERE WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OTHERWISE, BY 13Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALL OF ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL ALLOW CALM WINDS TO BECOME SW'RLY AT ABOUT 5KTS OR SO
BY MID MORNING SAT. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS, A COLD
FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. OUR FIRST THREAT AT SUB-VFR CEILINGS COMES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST WESTERN TERMINALS AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN SEE CEILINGS DROP BELOW 3 KFT BY ABOUT 8-10Z WITH
FURTHER EAST AREAS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
SOME SW'RLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ABOUT 35-40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z SUN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS, HAVE INCLUDED IT IN ALL AREA TAFS ON
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
OUTLOOK: INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT
SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WHICH COULD ALSO
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITY AS WELL. GUSTY
NW WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED INTO MON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE CONDITIONS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR NNWRLY
WINDS 30-40 KT EXPECTED.
THROUGH TONIGHT...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES EASES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS
INCREASE A BIT INTO THE 5-15 KT RANGE TODAY, THOUGH A BIT HIGHER
IN THE GULF WATERS WITH 10-20 KT EXPECTED. TONIGHT, GRADIENT
INC MORE WITH STRENGTHENING WAA EXPECTED, WITH SCA WINDS OVER
THE GULF WATERS WITH 20-25 KT G 30 KT EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND 10-15 KT
EXPECTED. SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA BEGINS SUN WITH PASSAGE
OF ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS BUILD TO GALES FIRST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE SUN AFTERNOON, AND HAVE UPGRADED TO
GALE WARNING HERE. REST OF THE WATERS, SOUNDS, AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER BUILD TO GALES SUN NIGHT, AND REMAIN IN A 4TH PERIOD GALE
WATCH. SEAS PEAK 6-10 FT IN THE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GALE SUN
NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH GALES
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO SCA CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN LINGERING HIGH
SEAS, AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. RETURN FLOW ALREADY ENSUES MON NIGHT
WITH SWRLY FLOW 5-15 KT G 20 KT EXPECTED. MAY FLIRT WITH SCA
AGAIN ON THE GULF WATERS ESP SOUTH OF C HATTERAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SWRLY FLOW IN
THE 5-15 KT RANGE EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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