384
FXUS62 KMHX 132341
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
641 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ENC TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING
THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S AS OF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ENC
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING TO AROUND 50 AS DAWN
APPROACHES AMIDST INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE JUST
BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHARPLY FALLING
TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HATTERAS ISLAND AND THE NOBX FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-15 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF ENC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH A STRENGTHENING 150 KT JET
STREAK LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE. DCVA COUPLED WITH
FORCING FROM THE JET STREAK WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL AID IN
DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS). CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST-
TO-EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN, BUT A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO MAY MIX IN
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS OR
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN SHARPLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS ENC. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND AND THE NOBX, WITH GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS/GUSTS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE REACHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ENC AND MOVES
OFFSHORE BY NOON, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER-TEENS
(LOW-20S OBX) MONDAY MORNING. COUPLED WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5-15
F ACROSS ENC MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, HAVE ISSUED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF ENC FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING SHOULD LOWS TREND COLDER OVER THE COMING
FORECAST CYCLES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND BRISK TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. BREEZIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS ABATING THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-20S
(NEAR 30 OBX). UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. AS OF NOW, THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MINIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR BUT JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE 15-25 F RANGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK (HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 60S BY THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY
(10-20%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT (30-50%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THUS,
DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT AS SUBSTANTIAL OF A TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
- MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BY
5-7 AM. AT THIS TIME, SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, LEADING TO FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO 1500-2000 FT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING (ODDS OF 10-20%
OR LESS), BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN IS THE STEADIEST, BETWEEN 13-18Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. FINALLY, INCREASING
LLWS MAY BRING ISSUES TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY FROM 1-6
AM.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40 KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES
OFFSHORE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE,
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS/INLAND RIVERS,
WITH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS (ALTHOUGH,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND). SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT SOUTH (2-4 FT
NORTH) OF OREGON INLET TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QUICKLY BUILD TO
GALES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WATERS. HAVE UPGRADED THE REST OF
THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE WARNINGS AS OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SCA
CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE NEUSE/BAY/PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS;
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ROUGHLY A 30-50% CHANCE OF
REACHING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THESE WATERS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED ACROSS FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY POTENTIAL
UPDATES. SEAS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE PEAKING AT
6-10 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT SEAS LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
BACK TO WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT, AND GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH SCA
AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS
MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY
AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203>205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-
152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...ZC
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