167
FXUS62 KMHX 140800
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH ENC TODAY, WITH ARCTIC
HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS ENC IS IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ANALYZED RACING
SEWRD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ENC
MID/LATE MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPS IN THIS STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM,
DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN. SHORT DURATION
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS AND
IT WILL BE VERY APPARENT, AS RAPID DRYING ALBEIT RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS START IN THE 50-55 RANGE
EARLY, DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR ALL OBX ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-15 DEGREE
RANGE TONIGHT - MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ECS/MET/MAV MOS AND NBM BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT AS
STRONG MIXING IN PLACE ALL NIGHT AND THUS PURE NBM RUNNING TOO
COLD ESP EASTERN HALF. NEVERTHELESS, STILL FORECASTING LOWS IN
THE 20S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 INTERIOR
ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 10+ MPH OVERNIGHT LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS 5-15 DEGREES AND COLD WX ADV REMAINS. STRONG WINDS
ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC BLAST, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ESP OBX WHERE
SUSTAINED UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN
MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND BRISK TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. BREEZIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS ABATING THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO ESP FOR COASTAL
MAINLAND AREAS DUE TO CLR SKIES AND THIS TIME ATMS WILL BE
DECOUPLED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20, WITH 25-30 OBX.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM SO NO
NEED FOR AN EXTENSION OF THE COLD WX ADV.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK (HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 60S BY THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY
(10-20%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT (50-60%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THUS,
DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT AS SUBSTANTIAL OF A TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUN EVENING THOUGH BREEZY WINDS
PERSIST INTO MON MORNING
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY NOTED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND MOVE INTO
ENC THIS MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SW'RLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS OF THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS (SUB 3000
FT) BY 6-8 AM. AT THIS TIME, SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO
1000-2000 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
(ODDS OF 10-20% OR LESS), BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN IS THE STEADIEST, BETWEEN 13-18Z. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE DO HAVE A SCT DECK AT 800 FT BETWEEN
THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 22Z , HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE INLAND WITH 35-45 MPH
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX. FINALLY, INCREASING LLWS MAY
BRING ISSUES TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY FROM 1-6 AM.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW 20 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BY
DAYBREAK MON AND FALLING BELOW 30 MPH ALONG THE OBX AT THE SAME
TIME. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MON EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG CAA BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE
OF ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QUICKLY BUILD TO GALES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WATERS. SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR REACH GALES THIS EVENING
WITH SECONDARY MAIN ARCTIC AIR CAA SURGE. SEAS PEAK IN THE 7-11
FT RANGE BY TONIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT SEAS LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT, AND GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH SCA AGAIN ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS
MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY
AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW IN
PLACE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FROPA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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