077
FXUS62 KMHX 141147
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH ENC TODAY, WITH ARCTIC
HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS ENC IS
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ANALYZED RACING
SEWRD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ENC
MID/LATE MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPS IN THIS STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM,
DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN. SHORT DURATION
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS AND
IT WILL BE VERY APPARENT, AS RAPID DRYING ALBEIT RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS START IN THE 50-55 RANGE
EARLY, DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR ALL OBX ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-15 DEGREE
RANGE TONIGHT - MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ECS/MET/MAV MOS AND NBM BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT AS
STRONG MIXING IN PLACE ALL NIGHT AND THUS PURE NBM RUNNING TOO
COLD ESP EASTERN HALF. NEVERTHELESS, STILL FORECASTING LOWS IN
THE 20S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 INTERIOR
ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 10+ MPH OVERNIGHT LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS 5-15 DEGREES AND COLD WX ADV REMAINS. STRONG WINDS
ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC BLAST, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ESP OBX WHERE
SUSTAINED UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN
MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND BRISK TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. BREEZIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS ABATING THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO ESP FOR COASTAL
MAINLAND AREAS DUE TO CLR SKIES AND THIS TIME ATMS WILL BE
DECOUPLED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20, WITH 25-30 OBX.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM SO NO
NEED FOR AN EXTENSION OF THE COLD WX ADV.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK (HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 60S BY THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY
(10-20%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT (50-60%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THUS,
DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT AS SUBSTANTIAL OF A TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON
- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THOUGH BREEZY WINDS PERSIST
INTO MON MORNING
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND QUICKLY
APPROACHING. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEARING THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS OF THIS UPDATE AND SHOULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CEILINGS LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS (1500-2500 FT) BY 7-9 AM AND REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVERSPREADING ALL THE TERMINALS BY MID
MORNING (~10 AM) WITH MUCH OF ENC SEEING LIGHT RAIN. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SOME SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ENC JUST
BEFORE PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS THIS AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 12PM AND 4PM)
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. MOST GUIDANCE
HAS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING (ODDS OF
10-20% OR LESS), BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN IS THE STEADIEST, BETWEEN 13-18Z. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CHANCE, HAVE A SCT DECK AT 800 FT BETWEEN THIS TIME.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFTER
ABOUT 18Z, HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE INLAND WITH
35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL EASE MON WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW
20 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON AND FALLING BELOW
30 MPH ALONG THE OBX AT THE SAME TIME. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MON EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG CAA BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE
OF ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QUICKLY BUILD TO GALES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WATERS. SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR REACH GALES THIS EVENING
WITH SECONDARY MAIN ARCTIC AIR CAA SURGE. SEAS PEAK IN THE 7-11
FT RANGE BY TONIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT SEAS LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT, AND GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH SCA AGAIN ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS
MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY
AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW IN
PLACE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FROPA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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