071
FXUS62 KMHX 141756
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING, BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
WHERE GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OBX ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-
15 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE OF ENC AS OF NOON SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NOW
REPORTED IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOWER-40S AFTER NEARING 60 EARLIER
THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH
TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S
BY THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND
TONIGHT (LOW-20S BEACHES). THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR, WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 5-15 F RANGE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANYING
THIS ARCTIC BLAST, WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH INLAND AND GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE OBX. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND OCRACOKE/HATTERAS ISLANDS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND
BRISK TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE) EXPECTED MONDAY.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS
ABATING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDER
OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL MAINLAND
AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR 20 (25-30 OBX). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (UNLIKE TONIGHT), SO
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY
WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
(HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 60S BY
THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY (10-30%) AND
THURSDAY NIGHT (50-70%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THUS, DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT AS SUBSTANTIAL OF A TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE
LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES...
- RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST
- MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INLAND,
AND NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COAST
- STRONG NW WINDS 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
IMPACT AREA RUNWAY OPERATIONS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ENC
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 1500-2500 FT. RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THOUGH STRONG NW WINDS OF
25-35 MPH MAY IMPACT RUNWAYS. WINDS CALM DOWN BY TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED.
- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
SOUNDS/RIVERS AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE FLIPPED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THIS MORNING'S STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS GENERALLY
NOTED AS 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25-35 KTS ACROSS AREA
WATERS WITH THIS INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SURGE. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE SOUNDS AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER EXPECTED TO REACH GALES LATER THIS EVENING WITH
A SECONDARY NORTHWESTERLY SURGE. WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5-7 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT 8-12 FT TONIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT SEAS
LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS MAY
AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 6-FOOTERS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...ZC
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