852
FXUS62 KMHX 150546
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING, BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OBX ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE 5- 15 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
NO CHANGES AS OF THIS UPDATE BUT WE DID TIE A RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE AT CAPE HATTERAS FOR DEC 14TH WHICH TIES A PREVIOUS
RECORD SET IN 1960.
PREV DISC...AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST
MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVER, AND JUST TO THE WEST OF, THE OBX THIS
EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED (IE. THROUGH ABOUT 9PM OR SO). THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO ADD IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THEN.
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER
THE INITIAL PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT, THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES
HAS SLOWED SOME. THE FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW A
SLOWER DROP IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH LOWS
STILL BOTTOMING OUT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE OF
ENC AS OF NOON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NOW REPORTED IN THE UPPER-30S TO
LOWER-40S AFTER NEARING 60 EARLIER THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S BY THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TONIGHT (LOW-20S BEACHES). THIS WILL
BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR, WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE 5-15 F RANGE TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS ARCTIC BLAST, WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH INLAND AND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE
OBX. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
AND OCRACOKE/HATTERAS ISLANDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH TRAVERSES ENC WITH COLD AND
BRISK TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE) EXPECTED MONDAY.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS
ABATING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDER
OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL MAINLAND
AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR 20 (25-30 OBX). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (UNLIKE TONIGHT), SO
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK (HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 60S BY THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY
(10-30%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT (50-70%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THUS, DO
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT AS SUBSTANTIAL OF A TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS (20-30KT+) TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DURING THIS TIME,
GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL BE COMMON AT ALL ENC TAF SITES, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OF 30-35KT+ ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. WINDS SHOULD
FINALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY MONDAY MORNING, AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY. FOR THE TAF SITES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST OF THE TAF SITES (IE. NEAR THE OUTER
BANKS), LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, OR REDUCTIONS TO VIS,
ARE EXPECTED. ON MONDAY, PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE OUTER BANKS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED.
- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
SOUNDS/RIVERS AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS
MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN WINDS, WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAKNESS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH WINDS BUILDING ONCE AGAIN.
THE FORECAST IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LOWER
WINDS FOR MOST WATERS, BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE, NO HEADLINE
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SHOULD THE DECREASED TREND LAST LONGER, SOME
HEADLINE CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE FLIPPED TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS MORNING'S STRONG COLD
FRONT, WITH WINDS GENERALLY NOTED AS 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 25-35 KTS ACROSS AREA WATERS WITH THIS INITIAL
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER EXPECTED
TO REACH GALES LATER THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE. WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. SEAS HAVE
QUICKLY BUILT TO 5-7 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 8-12 FT
TONIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT SEAS
LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS MAY
AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 6-FOOTERS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/ZC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page