029
FXUS62 KMHX 151721
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER ENC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WINDS CHILLS DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS STRONG CAA
BROUGHT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS. RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW TODAY,
AS THICKNESSES ON PAR WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NERN ZONES, ESP AREAS
THAT RECEIVED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS LAST NIGHT. REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE MID 30S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES
ON WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING AND FULL SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR SOME AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE TEENS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
- POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS TONIGHT (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER ENC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF ENC, AND WITH VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CALM/LIGHT WIND, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE IN PLACE. TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY OVER MODEL GUIDANCE AS
MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEPICT TEMPS COLD ENOUGH UNDER THESE REGIMES.
COLDEST AREAS WILL BE SWRN AND SRN ZONES NEAR
CROATAN/HOFFMAN/HOLLY SHELTER REGIONS, AND NERN MAINLAND ZONES.
TEMPS DROP TO THE MID TEENS HERE, AND WILL BE CLOSE TO COLD WX
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENTAL NBM 5.0 WHICH HAS SHOWN STRONG PERFORMANCE IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIMES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK (HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 60S BY THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY
(10-30%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT (60-70%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LEFT IN A 20% THUNDER
PROB, BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY SLIM ON LATEST 15/00Z MODEL SUITE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. ZONAL FLOW ENSUES BEHIND FROPA,
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO BEHIND IT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR ALMOST ALL OF ENC, INCLUDING TAF
SITES, AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ROOTED ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD
OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING ALONG THE OBX BEFORE WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY AND
LOWER CEILINGS MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE TODAY BEFORE BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WINDS ABATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES.
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SCA
POSSIBLE REST OF THE MARINE WATERS.
TODAY...WINDS DIE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS
LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, WITH 6+ FT
SEAS LINGERING NORTH OF OCRACOKE TODAY BUT DROPPING BELOW 6 FT
BY LATE THIS MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ABATE AND BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE EXPECTED. GUSTS MAY
AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 6-FOOTERS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN NWRLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE BEFORE
DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 12/16 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 13/1943 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 26/2010 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 5/1958 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 21/1958 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 19/2004 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 20/1968 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL
CLIMATE...MHX
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