848
FXUS62 KMHX 160528
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER ENC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
- POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS TONIGHT (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER ENC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF ENC, AND WITH VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CALM/LIGHT WIND, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE COLDEST/BELOW
GUIDANCE. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE SWRN AND SRN ZONES NEAR
CROATAN/HOFFMAN/HOLLY SHELTER REGIONS, AND NERN MAINLAND ZONES.
TEMPS DROP TO THE MID TEENS HERE, AND WILL BE CLOSE TO COLD WX
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TUE, AND AFTER A
VERY COLD START TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING, THOUGH STILL
ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES, W-SW
FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES (HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 60S BY
THURSDAY). PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY (10-30%) AND
THURSDAY NIGHT (60-70%) WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LEFT IN A 20% THUNDER PROB, BUT
INSTABILITY IS VERY SLIM ON LATEST MODEL SUITE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. ZONAL FLOW ENSUES BEHIND FROPA,
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO BEHIND IT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR ALL OF ENC AS OF THIS
UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ROOTED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS AND SEAS GRAD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SCA
POSSIBLE REST OF THE MARINE WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW NW-N WINDS 10-20 KT GUSTING 20-25 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND 4-7 FT NORTH. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO LIGHT W-SW 5-15 KT RETURNS TUE AND WED. GUSTS MAY
AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-5 FT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 6-FOOTERS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. WITH WARM OFFSHORE WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN NWRLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE BEFORE
DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 12/16 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 13/1943 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 26/2010 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 5/1958 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 21/1958 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 19/2004 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 20/1968 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
CLIMATE...MHX
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