185
FXUS62 KMHX 161938
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EASES OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...NOT NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT, BUT
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE MID TEENS ESPECIALLY INLAND, WE
EXPECT A QUICK TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. ADDED SOME COLDER VALUES
IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS (KENANSVILLE, HOFFMAN FOREST, CROATAN
FOREST, PUNGO LAKE, ETC), WITH MID 20S POSSIBLE HERE WITH 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONLY THING THAT MAY SAVE US FROM DROPPING
EVEN LOWER IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND FROM THE CALM CONDITIONS
LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING TEMPS CLOSE TO 60
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AFTER 16Z BETWEEN 25 AND 30KFT.
LATE IN THE DAY WE ALSO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID
LEVELS. THAT SHOULD ALL TRANSPIRE TO BRIGHT SUNSHINE, GIVING WAY
TO FILTERED SUNSHINE AND EVENTUALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD BUT WITH A
WONDERFUL FORECAST FROM OUR CO WORKERS LAST NIGHT, WELL IN LINE
WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT (90%+) AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRONGLY FORCED FROPA OVERNIGHT. A SOLID HALF OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED IN QPF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THUNDER
CHC HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED
MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND SOME LIFTED INDICES NEAR
ZERO. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED THIS IS IS COMBATING THE
NOW MUCH COLDER NEARSHORE SHELF/SOUND WATERS. A STORM MAY
MIGRATE ONSHORE THE CTRL/SRN OBX OFF THE GULF OR EVEN INTO THE
CRYSTAL COAST (ESPECIALLY BOGUE BANKS THROUGH CAPE LOOKOUT) AND
KEPT IN A 20%-30% HERE FOR THAT SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER. NO SVR
EXPECTED, BUT A BOUT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THU EVENING MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. ZONAL FLOW ENSUES BEHIND FROPA,
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO BEHIND IT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD KEEPING SKY'S CLEAR AND THE AREA DRY.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WED.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SCA REST
OF THE MARINE WATERS.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO LIGHT W-SW 5-15 KT RETURNS
THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTS MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD
BE BRIEF AND NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU WITH SRLY
GRADIENT INC TO 10-20 KT. THU NIGHT FLOW INC FURTHER AHEAD OF
STRONG FRONT APPROACHING, WITH SRLY WINDS OF 25-35 G 40 KT ON
THE GULF, THOUGH REMAINING 15-25 G 30 ELSEWHERE AS STOUT MARINE
INVERSION IN PLACE WITH RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK. SEAS BUILD TO
6-11 FT ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET DUE TO THE STRONG
SRLY FLOW THU NIGHT. WINDS TURN WRLY TO NWRLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 G 30 KT
RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH/TL
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...EH/TL
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