999
FXUS62 KMHX 260018
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO COLD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1910 CHRISTMAS...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT OFFERS LOW CHANCE OF RAIN (10-20%)
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY
CUTTING ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FA, WITH EASTERN NC STILL
UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS NC TONIGHT AND THEN STALL WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS A
CAD PATTERN SETS UP FOR TOMORROW. FRONT COULD BRING A VERY
SPOTTY SHOWER CHANCE AHEAD OF IT, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT
UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT WITH
CLOUD COVER BUT BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH, LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OUTER BANKS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM CHRISTMAS...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY; RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRIEF CAD APPEARS LIKELY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH PAST THE LOW TO MID 50S.
NBM SEEMS MUCH TOO WARM FOR A CAD PATTERN AND OPTED TO NUDGE
FORECAST HIGHS MORE TOWARDS A DETERMINISTIC BLEND - IN LINE WITH
A 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE NBM FORECAST.
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY BACKED OFF OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, AND OFFERED A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 AM CHRISTMAS...
KEY MESSAGES...
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NC
- ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
- A PATTERN CHANGING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
RETURNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT (40-60%) AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ENC, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, THOUGH CHILLIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OBX.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT, AND ONLY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1840 CHRISTMAS...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH FA
- MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 03Z-09Z TONIGHT (35-55%
CHANCE, A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE)
- VFR THROUGH BULK OF DAY FRI
- DETERIORATING FLIGHT CATS FRI NIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA (IN
THE 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME). DURING THIS TIME, A BAND OF LOW CIGS
AND SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT (35-55% CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE, HIGHER CLOSER TO COAST). GIVEN THE LOWER
PROBABILITY, THE TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING, BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TAF SITES SAVE
FOR PGV. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP AROUND A COASTAL TROUGH. THIS RISK MAY CONTINUE OFF AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEARS LIKELY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM CHRISTMAS...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CHAOTIC BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS MULTIPLE
FRONTS CROSS AREA WATERS IN QUICK SUCCESSION THROUGH THE HOLIDAYS.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ROBUST MIXING. SOUNDSIDE WATERS
ARE ALREADY UP TO 15-20 KT WITH SPOTTY GALE CONDITIONS BEING
OBSERVED OVER DIAMOND SHOALS AND SOLID SCA OVER PORTIONS OF
ONSLOW BAY. SEAS ARE RESPONDING IN KIND, NOW UP TO 6-7 FEET
ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS.
FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A
RENEWED SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
LINGERING THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOUNDSIDE
THROUGH FRI AM, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS OFFSHORE
WATERS UNTIL FRI PM AT THE EARLIEST, LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. SEAS PEAK AT 6-8 FEET.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT SEAS
MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT AS LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVES INTO
MARINE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WATERS FROM OREGON
INLET TO OCRACOKE MAY BE UNDER CONTINUOUS HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SGK
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