168
FXUS62 KMHX 261934
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WITH
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO COLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COLD AIR DAM WILL KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S TODAY WITH DRIZZLE
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT
COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP HAS NOT RELENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE LOWLANDS OF SC AND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN NC AND
SOUTHEASTERN VA. THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS MARRED IN LOW CLOUDS,
AND HIGHS HAVE FAILED TO BREACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
AREAWIDE. SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR,
POSSIBLY AS VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE, BUT THUS FAR NO SITES HAVE
REPORTED PRECIPITATION TODAY.
PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK LOW EXPECTED TO SPIN UP ALONG
OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALREADY
BECOMING APPARENT ON SATELLITE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THIS LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT NORTH WITH IT, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF THE
MIDWEST, AND RESULTANT LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR MODEST SHOWER RISK MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T EXCEED MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DIURNAL
CURVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE REMARKABLY FLAT AS LOWS
HOVER IN THE MID 40S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTH OF HWY 264,
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED AS
BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT, THIS TIME
WITH A SURGE OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED INLAND, ALTHOUGH INCREASE OF CAA-ASSOCIATED STRATO-CU
OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE OVERCAST AND DREARY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
TYPICAL OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIMES, ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND WEST OF US 70, BUT ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS NOBX AND AREAS ADJACENT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S!
- A PATTERN CHANGING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ESPECIALLY NICE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER OUR AREA, H925 TEMPS CLIMB TO +8C, WHICH WILL HELP
PART OF OUR AREA MAKING A RUN TOWARD 70 FOR HIGHS! 925 TEMPS
COOL ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES SUNDAY, AND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS,
TEMPS WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM OR GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
THE MAIN TREND WITH OUR ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW IT
DOWN. AT ONE POINT A LATER SUNDAY FROPA IS NOW LATER MONDAY.
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) MONDAY, HIGHS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S OR ROUGHLY AVERAGE HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER
FOR WEST PALM BEACH, FL! A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE BIGGER HEADLINE WILL BE THE
ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER. BELOW TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. OUCH!
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT
- LLWS IMPACTS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS ONGOING ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THIS AREA, A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC AFTER
21Z/4PM TODAY. WEAK LIFT IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF PERIODS OF -DZ AS CIGS LOWER. AT THIS
TIME, THE -DZ IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT REDUCTIONS
TO VIS. THE PEAK IN LIFT AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT, AND THIS IS WHEN IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE GIVES A 20-40% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS, BUT FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT, THIS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC. ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITIES BASED ON THE
PATTERN, IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A 30-50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THIS IS
RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD FOR GOING WITH A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
IFR VS STICKING WITH MVFR. WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE, I ADDED IN A
SCT009 LAYER TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN THE IFR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
THE HIGHEST, BUT DIDN'T YET INTRODUCE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS.
ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS PATTERN IS A DRYING WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT,
WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH, LOWERING THE RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.
LASTLY, A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALOFT LOOKS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF LLWS IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPEARS LIKELY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCA LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- STILL EYEING A RISK OF GALES FOR AT LEAST OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OFFSHORE WATERS
DESPITE EASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A STALLED COLD FRONT,
WITH SEAS AROUND 5-7 FEET ESPECIALLY FROM HATTERAS NORTHWARD.
WEATHER REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT CHAOTIC AS WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT, DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT WITH IT AND QUICKLY VEERING WINDS SOUTH AND THEN
WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RENEWED
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
OFFSHORE ZONES AND SOUNDSIDE WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
MULTIPLE LULLS IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE RAPID CHANGING OF
WINDS. WATER SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WILL HAVE THE LONGEST LULL
AND HAVE THEM SCA FREE THROUGH 06Z. ZONES NORTH OF HERE HAVE HAD
THEIR SCA EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PAMLICO, CROATAN AND
ROANOKE SOUNDS WILL FEEL POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURGE SAT
AFTERNOON AND HAVE POSTED A SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THESE WATERS
THROUGH LATE SAT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT SEAS
MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT AS LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVES INTO
MARINE WATERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS OFF HATTERAS. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE MAY
BE UNDER CONTINUOUS HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...MS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page