777
FXUS62 KMHX 270104
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
804 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WITH
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO COLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1920 FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- PATCHES OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MAINLY E OF HWY17
- RAIN CHANCES ALONG OBX INCREASE TONIGHT
PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVELING NEWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.
CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE NC COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFF OBX OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING A WARM
FRONT NORTH WITH IT, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF THE
MIDWEST, AND RESULTANT LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR MODEST SHOWER RISK PREDOMINANTLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH OCRACOKE AND CAPE HATTERAS, THOUGH
SPOTTY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND E OF HWY17. QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T EXCEED MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. ALL
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY OFFSHORE BY 0300EST. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE, HIRES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A POSSIBILITY
OF A POCKET OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WORKING NEWARD FROM
THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO FOG
AND/OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN SWERN ZONES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE AND LIGHT SFC
WINDS VEER FROM SWERLY TO NWERLY, THIS POCKET OF INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE BURNING OFF AND
MIXING OUT. HAVE ADDED FOG WITH VIS 1-3MI TO SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DIURNAL
CURVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE REMARKABLY FLAT AS LOWS
HOVER IN THE MID 40S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTH OF HWY 264,
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED AS
BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT, THIS TIME
WITH A SURGE OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED INLAND, ALTHOUGH INCREASE OF CAA-ASSOCIATED STRATO-CU
OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE OVERCAST AND DREARY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
TYPICAL OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIMES, ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND WEST OF US 70, BUT ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS NOBX AND AREAS ADJACENT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S!
- A PATTERN CHANGING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ESPECIALLY NICE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER OUR AREA, H925 TEMPS CLIMB TO +8C, WHICH WILL HELP
PART OF OUR AREA MAKING A RUN TOWARD 70 FOR HIGHS! 925 TEMPS
COOL ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES SUNDAY, AND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS,
TEMPS WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM OR GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
THE MAIN TREND WITH OUR ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW IT
DOWN. AT ONE POINT A LATER SUNDAY FROPA IS NOW LATER MONDAY.
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) MONDAY, HIGHS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S OR ROUGHLY AVERAGE HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER
FOR WEST PALM BEACH, FL! A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE BIGGER HEADLINE WILL BE THE
ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER. BELOW TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. OUCH!
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1830 FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CURRENT MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT
- OAJ MAY SEE SOME FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN EARLY MORNING
HOURS
- LLWS IMPACTS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- FLIGHT CATS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH BREEZY NEERLY
WINDS SAT.
- MVFR CIGS TOMORROW EVENING ALONG HATT AND NOBX
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS LED TO MVFR CIGS. WEAK LIFT IN
TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
PERIODS OF -DZ AS CIGS LOWER. AT THIS TIME, THE -DZ HAS BEEN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT REDUCTIONS TO VIS, HENCE NO MENTION IN
TAFS. THE PEAK IN LIFT AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT, AND THIS IS WHEN IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING APPEARS TO HAVE
DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS TAF ITERATIONS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF THE SCT AND FEW IFR DECK JUST TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY IN
PILOTS' MINDS. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS PATTERN IS A
DRYING WERLY FLOW THAT IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT, ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO BEGIN SCATTERING AND LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR IN
THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A
POSSIBILITY OF A POCKET OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WORKING
NEWARD FROM THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE FRONT LEADING
TO FOG AND/OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS ENCROACHING SWERN ZONES IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE AND LIGHT
SFC WINDS VEER FROM SWERLY TO NWERLY, THIS POCKET OF INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE BURNING OFF AND
MIXING OUT. HAVE ADDED PREVAILING MVFR FOG WITH TEMPO IFR FOR
OAJ. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY ON SATURDAY AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH,
LOWERING THE RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES. ALONG THE
NEERN COAST OF THE FA (HATTERAS ISLAND AND NOBX), LOWER CIGS
AROUND FL015 ARE EXPECTED TO SINK SWWARD FROM THE NE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SAT EVENING AND NIGHT.
LASTLY, A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALOFT LOOKS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF LLWS IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION
AND AGAIN MON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEARS LIKELY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25KT ACCOMPANYING EARLY WEEK FROPA.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCA LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- STILL EYEING A RISK OF GALES FOR AT LEAST OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OFFSHORE WATERS
DESPITE EASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A STALLED COLD FRONT,
WITH SEAS AROUND 5-7 FEET ESPECIALLY FROM HATTERAS NORTHWARD.
WEATHER REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT CHAOTIC AS WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT, DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT WITH IT AND QUICKLY VEERING WINDS SOUTH AND THEN
WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RENEWED
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
OFFSHORE ZONES AND SOUNDSIDE WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
MULTIPLE LULLS IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE RAPID CHANGING OF
WINDS. WATER SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WILL HAVE THE LONGEST LULL
AND HAVE THEM SCA FREE THROUGH 06Z. ZONES NORTH OF HERE HAVE HAD
THEIR SCA EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PAMLICO, CROATAN AND
ROANOKE SOUNDS WILL FEEL POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURGE SAT
AFTERNOON AND HAVE POSTED A SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THESE WATERS
THROUGH LATE SAT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT SEAS
MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT AS LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVES INTO
MARINE WATERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS OFF HATTERAS. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE MAY
BE UNDER CONTINUOUS HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...EH
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