276
FXUS62 KMHX 270658
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
158 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SPILLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE
SUNDAY LEADING TO BRIEF WARM UP AND THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS
LATE MONDAY. WINTRY TEMPS RETURN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT SET TO CROSS LATE-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0100 SATURDAY...
BOUNDARY DRAPED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS GETS PULLED
THROUGH THE SERN HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED S OF THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES
ESEWARD THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A DEVELOPING, AND WEAKER, LOW
LIFTS NEWARD OFFSHORE OF THE OBX. PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING NEWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE NC
COAST JUST E OF CAPE HATTERAS. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTS AWAY
TO THE ENE, INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRAGGING
BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS LIGHT SFC WINDS VEER FROM
SWERLY TO NWERLY, THIS POCKET OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE BURNING OFF AND MIXING OUT.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DIURNAL
CURVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE REMARKABLY FLAT AS LOWS
HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WARM FROPA OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED AS BOUNDARY
ADVANCES SWARD AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT, THIS TIME WITH A SURGE OF
DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED INLAND, ALTHOUGH INCREASE OF CAA-ASSOCIATED STRATO-CU
OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE OVERCAST AND DREARY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
TYPICAL OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIMES, ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND WEST OF US 70, BUT ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS NOBX AND AREAS ADJACENT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0115 SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST WITH
LIGHT NEERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE W.
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK
PERSISTING OVER NEERN ZONES, SLOWLY ADVECTING SWWARD WHILE
ERODING. MINTS MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND, MID 40S IMMEDIATE
COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 0120 SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.
- STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
- COOL THROUGH EARLY WEEK, MODERATING MIDWEEK AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONT TO CROSS LATE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH BULK OF WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE NECONUS COAST BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC HIGH, SERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALLOWING WAA TO KICK OFF WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE W. MINTS MARKEDLY WARMER AND AN UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SUN NIGHT. STRONG WAA THROUGH THE COLUMN
AHEAD OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRAVELING EWARD ACROSS NCONUS
WILL LEAD TO MAXTS APPROACHING THE MID 70S WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH LATTER
HALF OF MONDAY. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE NEXT
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING
- LLWS IMPACTS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRYING WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO SCT OUT EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A POSSIBILITY OF
A POCKET OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WORKING NEWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS ENCROACHING SWERN ZONES TOWARDS
SUNRISE.AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE AND LIGHT SFC WINDS
VEER FROM SWERLY TO NWERLY, THIS POCKET OF INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE BURNING OFF AND MIXING OUT.
TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES AT
ISO AND OAJ. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY BY MID
MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH, LOWERING THE RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES.
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE MVFR SCU DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH N-NE FLOW. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ALOFT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF LLWS
IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE
INVERSION AND AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT ACCOMPANYING EARLY WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 0140 SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCA LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- STILL EYEING A RISK OF GALES FOR AT LEAST OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT FOR MOST OFFSHORE WATERS DESPITE
AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENEWARD OFF OBX, DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT WITH IT. THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A RENEWED SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 20 KT
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OFFSHORE ZONES AND SOUNDSIDE WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
MULTIPLE LULLS IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE RAPID CHANGING OF
WINDS. SCAS IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING 6FT
SEAS FOLLOWED BY THE NERLY SURGE OF 25KT+ GUSTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PAMLICO, CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS BEEN
ADDED TO THE SCA LIST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT AS LONG PERIOD
SWELL MOVES INTO MARINE WATERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS OFF
HATTERAS. S-SWERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER WARMER
GSTREAM WATERS. WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE MAY BE
UNDER CONTINUOUS HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...EH/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CEB
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