933
FXUS62 KMHX 272339
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE
SUNDAY LEADING TO BRIEF WARM UP AND THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS
LATE MONDAY. WINTRY TEMPS RETURN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT SET TO CROSS LATE-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AS BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
BACK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE NC/SC STATE LINE AS
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
APART FROM SOME THIN CLOUDS, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED, HITTING ONLY
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND WEST OF US70.
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS QUIET AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS,
EVENTUALLY WEDGING INTO A CAD-LIKE PATTERN BY SUN MORNING. STILL
EXPECTING ENCROACHMENT OF COASTAL STRATO-CU LATER TONIGHT WITH
PROLONGED NORTHERLY FETCH, BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR UNTIL AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF POTENT MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME DECOUPLING IN MORE SHELTERED
SPOTS AND SOME LOWS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK, ALTHOUGH AVERAGE
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING WAA OVERTOP THE SURFACE WEDGE, SETTING UP ANOTHER
IN-SITU CAD PATTERN, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. IT LIKELY WON'T LAST
LONG AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN LIFTS BACK NORTH AND EAST
LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT, BUT UNTIL THEN WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER OVERCAST AND COOL DAY. GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER, OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS LOWER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
A FEW 60S ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 0120 SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.
- STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
- COOL THROUGH EARLY WEEK, MODERATING MIDWEEK AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONT TO CROSS LATE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH BULK OF WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE NECONUS COAST BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC HIGH, SERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALLOWING WAA TO KICK OFF WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE W. MINTS MARKEDLY WARMER AND AN UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SUN NIGHT. STRONG WAA THROUGH THE COLUMN
AHEAD OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRAVELING EWARD ACROSS NCONUS
WILL LEAD TO MAXTS APPROACHING THE MID 70S WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH LATTER
HALF OF MONDAY. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE NEXT
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS TAF SITES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OBX
AMIDST NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
LINGER ALONG THE OBX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
THESE CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INLAND TO THE TAF SITES AS OF
THIS UPDATE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (<20%) OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING BUT
THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING AND GENERALLY NON-IMPACTFUL SHOULD IT
MATERIALIZE. LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND AGAIN
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25
KT ACCOMPANYING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OFFSHORE WATER, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SOUNDSIDE
- STILL EYEING A RISK OF GALES FOR AT LEAST OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SCA ACROSS REMAINING
WATERS
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OCCURRING AS ADVERTISED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KT AT TIMES. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED IN KIND,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE BUOYS ARE REPORTING
HEIGHTS OF 6-8 FEET. ONSLOW BAY REMAINS MORE SHELTERED WITH SEAS
OF 4 FEET.
THIS ONGOING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
AREA WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL GIVE SEAS A CHANCE TO RETREAT BELOW 6 FEET MAINLY FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, BUT NORTHERN WATERS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN SCA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WEAKEN TO UNDER
10 KT THROUGH SUNDAY OUT OF THE EAST, GRADUALLY VEERING
SOUTHERLY BY SUN EVENING AND INCREASING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
TOWARD AREA WATERS.
SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ONSLOW BAY WATERS, BUT OTHER HEADLINES
REMAIN IN PLACE. DID EXTEND CENTRAL WATERS OUT A FEW HOURS TO
THE TIME WINDOW WHEN PRE-FRONTAL GALES MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST
PROBABLE.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT AS LONG PERIOD
SWELL MOVES INTO MARINE WATERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS OFF
HATTERAS. S-SWERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS AND PROBABLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER WARMER
GSTREAM WATERS. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR
OFFSHORE ZONES OVERNIGHT OR SUN AFTERNOON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...EH/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CEB
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