921
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1241 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BRIEF WARM UP AND THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. WINTRY TEMPS
RETURN AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS LATE-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1030 AM SUN...AM UPDATE TO LOWER MAX T'S SEVERAL DEGREES.
WEAK CAD AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY, KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCALES.
PREV DISC... AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ALOFT. SKIES WILL
BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH STCU ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM
OFFSHORE AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, WARMEST
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRING INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
LOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING THEN WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARM AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL BRING A MODEST WARM UP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 60S ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
AND ONLY EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL
STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW REACHING THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW
TO MID 30S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA MID WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S AND LOW IN THE MID 20S. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL. A DRY FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE AREA DEPENDING IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY MVFR INNER
COASTAL PLAIN
- SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT
VFR CONDITIONS BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH IN-SITU CAD BEGIN TO ERODE.
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THIS STRATUS DECK ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND PGV AND ISO MAY BRIEFLY
BOUNCE BACK DOWN TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. DESPITE SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT, POTENT LLJ OF UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BRINGING LLWS CONCERNS FOR ALL TERMINALS. VFR LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN INCREASING WINDS,
BEFORE CIGS TREND LOWER MIDDAY MONDAY WHILE FRONT MAKES ITS
APPROACH. SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA TO LOW END GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS
N TO NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BUT 5-7 FT SEAS PERSIST NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.
THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. LOW END
SCA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS AND COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET WHERE COOLER WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING BUT
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE PROGGED
TO BUILD UP TO 6-10 FT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY
WITH W-NW FLOW AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...SK
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