667
FXUS62 KMHX 290106
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
806 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WARM
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BRING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRING INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WILL BE REACHED DURING THE EVENING THEN WILL SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WAA BRINGING TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR
MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE WITH FROPA LATE IN
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT BRIEF SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE 40-60% POPS RESIDE.
FURTHER SOUTH, FORCING AND MOISTURE IS LESS SO POPS REMAIN
30-50%. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR ZONES, BUT DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER COLD SHELF/SOUND WATERS WILL KEEP THE BEACHES
COOL IN THE LOW 60S FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SEA FOG DUE TO THE STABLE FLOW NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST AND
ALSO OBX ZONES, THOUGH ENOUGH WIND SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY MON NIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW REACHING THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO 30S
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S ALL
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA MID WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS 20-25, EVEN CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LOW 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ACCUMULATING RAIN TO THE
REGION. FOR NOW TIMING AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED
SO HELD POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. TEMPS NEAR AVG FOR EARLY JAN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
- SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BRING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MOIST S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A MIX OF CIGS ACROSS RTES.
CURRENTLY SEEING PATCHY MVFR ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH IFR
IN DUPLIN CO, AND VFR ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED WITH PROBS FOR SUB-VFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT LEADING
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HREF IS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
GREATER THAN 70% PROB OF SUB-VFR SPREADING ACROSS MOST RTES
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE THE REFS KEEPS PROBS LESS THAN 20% THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEFLY TO AROUND 60-80% MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO AROUND 40 KT WILL BRING LLWS CONCERNS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING BETTER MIXING LATE TONIGHT, AFTER AROUND 10Z, EASING
LLWS CONCERNS. MONDAY WILL SEE SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME NW
AFTER FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA RAMPS UP.
BREEZY W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TUESDAY.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 3 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MON WITH ELEVATED SEAS CONT.
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH
GALES OVER THE GULF STREAM AND SCA FOR THE REST OF THE
WATERS/SOUNDS/RIVERS.
THROUGH MONDAY...LINGERING HIGHS SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SWELL
CONTINUES OFF THE COAST NORTH OF OCRACOKE. HIGH PRES SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG MARINE INVERSION
PRESENT TOMORROW WITH WARM AIRMASS ATOP COLD WATERS IN THE 50S
CREATING STABLE FLOW AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS
REACH 25 KT AT TIMES. MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF STREAM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WHERE SST'S IN THE 60S TO
70S, AND 35-40KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM AT BEING
ATTAINED. HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES FROM 9A
TO 6P.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MON EVENING WITH CAA ENSUING AND KEEPING WINDS HIGH DUE TO GOOD
MIXING. GALES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL AS 925MB WINDS ARE LOWER
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SOME BRIEF GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EVENING. NBM/REFS PROBS ARE NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH AND THUS WILL END GALES AT 6PM AND WILL HAVE STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS WITH WNW WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY WITH W-NW FLOW AROUND 10-20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS BECOME SWRLY MID WEEK BUT
REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MOST. COULD SEE MARGINAL SCA WINDS FOR THE
GULF WATERS WITH SWRLY WINDS INC A BIT LATE WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF DRY COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THU.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...TL
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