717
FXUS62 KMHX 290757
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. BREEZY SW WINDS AND
BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BRING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0230 MONDAY...WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE WITH FROPA
LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT, A QUICK MOVING, THIN BAND OF
WANING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION FOR THE
NERN ZONES N OF HWY70, WHERE 50-70% POPS RESIDE. FURTHER S,
FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MORE SPARSE, SO POPS REMAIN 20-40%.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR ZONES, BUT DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW OVER COLD SHELF/SOUND WATERS WILL KEEP THE BEACHES COOL IN
THE LOW 60S FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SEA
FOG DUE TO THE STABLE FLOW NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST AND ALSO OBX
ZONES, THOUGH ENOUGH WIND SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0230 MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NWERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY TONIGHT, DIPPING INTO
THE 40S JUST AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO COOL TO MINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND TO 30S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA MID WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS 20-25, EVEN CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LOW 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ACCUMULATING RAIN TO THE
REGION. FOR NOW TIMING AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED
SO HELD POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. TEMPS NEAR AVG FOR EARLY JAN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
- SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BRING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS
MOIST S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A MIX OF CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
VFR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CIGS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SUB-VFR JUST
WEST OF THE TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
TO CREEP FURTHER EASTWARD IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT PGV AND ISO THROUGH SUNRISE. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR CIGS. RAPID DRYING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND VFR RETURNING.
STRENGTHENING LLJ TO AROUND 40 KT WILL BRING LLWS CONCERNS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME NW AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING BREEZY.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SCAS IN PLACE FOR ALL
INSIDE WATERS.
THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES AFTER
SUNRISE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM MIDMORNING UNTIL A THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HIGHEST POPS NERN ZONES. GALE WARNINGS
GO INTO EFFECT FROM S TO N AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST WINDS AND
GUSTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS ITERATIONS AND HAVE
OPTED TO ADD THE NERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE SLEW OF GALE
WARNINGS. FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMSOUND MAY SEE SOME GALE GUSTS
THIS EVENING, BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THIS
ZONE DUE TO BRIEF DURATION AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MON EVENING WITH CAA ENSUING AND KEEPING WINDS HIGH DUE TO GOOD
MIXING. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH WNW WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY WITH W-NW FLOW AROUND 10-20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-5 FT. WINDS BECOME SWRLY MID WEEK BUT
REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MOST. COULD SEE MARGINAL SCA WINDS FOR THE
GULF WATERS WITH SWRLY WINDS INC A BIT LATE WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF DRY COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THU. WINDS GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN W-NWERLY WINDS LATE WEEK.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. REPRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CEB
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