804
FXUS62 KMHX 291809
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. BREEZY SW WINDS AND
BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BRING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 915 AM MON...UPDATED TO INC WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, AS
STRONG MIXING ON WARM SWRLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH ESP INLAND FROM THE COAST, WITH LIGHTER WINDS IMMEDIATE
BEACHES AND OBX DUE TO SHALLOW/STRONG MARINE INVERSION WITH COLD
WATER. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX T'S DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OBX, AND UP A COUPLE DEGREES INLAND. HIGHS RANGE FROM
LOW 60S CTRL OBX TO LOW/MID 70S INTERIOR.
PREV DISC... AS OF 0230 MONDAY...WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE
WITH FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT, A QUICK MOVING, THIN
BAND OF WANING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
FOR THE NERN ZONES N OF HWY70, WHERE 50-70% POPS RESIDE. FURTHER
S, FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MORE SPARSE, SO POPS REMAIN 20-40%.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR ZONES, BUT DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW OVER COLD SHELF/SOUND WATERS WILL KEEP THE BEACHES COOL IN
THE LOW 60S FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SEA
FOG DUE TO THE STABLE FLOW NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST AND ALSO OBX
ZONES, THOUGH ENOUGH WIND SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0230 MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NWERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY TONIGHT, DIPPING INTO
THE 40S JUST AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO COOL TO MINTS INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO 30S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA MID WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS 20-25, EVEN CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LOW 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ACCUMULATING RAIN TO THE
REGION. FOR NOW TIMING AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED
SO HELD POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. TEMPS NEAR AVG FOR EARLY JAN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS UPDATE. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS ENC BY MID-AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED AND HAS JUST BEGIN TO ENTER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PUSHING OFFSHORE AROUND 22-23Z TODAY. WITH THESE SHOWERS A
BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 2-2.5
KFT WIL PERSIST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT, HAVE KEPT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH ISO/PGV RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 20Z
AND EWN/OAJ RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 21Z. RAPID
DRYING EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND VFR RETURNING TO ALL OF ENC BY 23Z-00Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD INTO TUE
AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME NW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING BREEZY. BREEZY SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN/ISO RUNWAY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS DO EASE TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP
AROUND 10-15 KT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE EASING FURTHER.
EXPECT A RETURN TO 10-15 KT NW'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
15-20 KTS BY MID MORNING TUE.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 915 AM MON...ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN FOR PAMLICO/NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MARINE INVERSION
PREVENTS IDEAL MIXING, WHILE INC THEM OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE
SST'S ARE IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25+ KT ON PAMLICO AND
NRN WATERS WHILE JUST OFFSHORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES.
PREV DISC...AS OF 0400 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SCAS IN PLACE FOR ALL
INSIDE WATERS.
THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES AFTER
SUNRISE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM MIDMORNING UNTIL A THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HIGHEST POPS NERN ZONES. FORECAST WINDS
AND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS ITERATIONS AND
HAVE OPTED TO ADD THE NERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE SLEW OF GALE
WARNINGS. WITH THE 0400 UPDATE, HAVE PUT THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT AS
DIAMOND HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERPERFORMING
ALL GUIDANCE. REMAINING GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FROM S TO N
AFTER DAYBREAK. FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMSOUND MAY SEE SOME GALE
GUSTS THIS EVENING, BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE
FOR THIS ZONE DUE TO BRIEF DURATION AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MON EVENING WITH CAA ENSUING AND KEEPING WINDS HIGH DUE TO GOOD
MIXING. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH WNW WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY WITH W-NW FLOW AROUND 10-20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-5 FT. WINDS BECOME SWRLY MID WEEK BUT
REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MOST. COULD SEE MARGINAL SCA WINDS FOR THE
GULF WATERS WITH SWRLY WINDS INC A BIT LATE WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF DRY COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THU. WINDS GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN W-NWERLY WINDS LATE WEEK.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. REPRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ON TUE
AS LOW RH'S COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER ABOUT 3/4PM BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS.
THIS THREAT HOWEVER WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL, WITH RH'S GENERALLY NOT TANKING UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 3/4PM AND ONLY GETTING DOWN TO THE 35-45% RANGE. AS WE GET
INTO TUESDAY, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW RH
VALUES (~25-35%), BREEZY WNW WINDS, AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE, WHILE RH'S ARE LOW AND SOILS REMAIN DRY,
WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER ON TUE CLOSER TO 15-20 KTS SO CRITERIA
FOR HEADLINES MAY NOT BE MET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB
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