954
FXUS62 KMHX 292003
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NWERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY TONIGHT, DIPPING INTO THE 40S JUST
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO COOL TO MINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S
INLAND TO 30S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. CONTEMPLATED A WIND
ADV FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISL, AS POST FRONTAL NWRLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO ~45 MPH AT TIMES, BUT SHORTER DURATION (LESS THAN 3
HOURS) WILL PRECLUDE A HEADLINES ATTM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...COLD AND CRISP DAY IN STORE AS MAX T'S ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S, A STARK CONTRAST TO THE 60S AND 70S OBSERVED
ON MON. BRISK NWRLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SATURDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 20-25 RANGE, EVEN
CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND ~50.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH AND
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF ENC. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST 28/12Z
SUITE AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES LEAD TO LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST, ESP SOUTHERN HALF WHERE 60-80% IN THE FORECAST NOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS UPDATE. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS ENC BY MID-AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED AND HAS JUST BEGIN TO ENTER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PUSHING OFFSHORE AROUND 22-23Z TODAY. WITH THESE SHOWERS A
BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 2-2.5
KFT WIL PERSIST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT, HAVE KEPT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH ISO/PGV RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 20Z
AND EWN/OAJ RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 21Z. RAPID
DRYING EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND VFR RETURNING TO ALL OF ENC BY 23Z-00Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD INTO TUE
AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME NW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING BREEZY. BREEZY SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN/ISO RUNWAY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS DO EASE TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP
AROUND 10-15 KT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE EASING FURTHER.
EXPECT A RETURN TO 10-15 KT NW'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
15-20 KTS BY MID MORNING TUE.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 3 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES...
- GALES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
- GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-20 WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. SCA MORE LIKELY GULF WATERS
WED NIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING.
- DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPRED SCA DEVELOPING IN WINDS AND SEAS IN
IT'S WAKE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SWRLY GRADIENT BRINGING SOLID GALES OF 40-45
KT TO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STOUT SCA WINDS OF
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY AROUND 6 PM
WITH GALES CONT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS + NRN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND DUE TO STRONG CAA AND GOOD MIXING. GUSTS TO 40 KT EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT GRAD WEAKENS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WRLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH GENERAL WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT WITH
WSWRLY GRADIENT INC GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THUR WITH NRLY WIND SURGE BRINGING SCA TO THE SOUNDS AND
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. RAIN APPEARS WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS THOUGH DEPENDS ON THE LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH WITH DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ON TUE
AS LOW RH'S COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER ABOUT 3/4PM BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS.
THIS THREAT HOWEVER WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL, WITH RH'S GENERALLY NOT TANKING UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 3/4PM AND ONLY GETTING DOWN TO THE 35-45% RANGE. AS WE GET
INTO TUESDAY, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW RH
VALUES (~25-35%), BREEZY WNW WINDS, AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE, WHILE RH'S ARE LOW AND SOILS REMAIN DRY,
WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER ON TUE CLOSER TO 15-20 KTS SO CRITERIA
FOR HEADLINES MAY NOT BE MET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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