452
FXUS62 KMHX 300009
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 3 PM MON...CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NWERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY TONIGHT, DIPPING INTO THE 40S JUST
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO COOL TO MINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S
INLAND TO 30S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. CONTEMPLATED A WIND
ADV FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISL, AS POST FRONTAL NWRLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO ~45 MPH AT TIMES, BUT SHORTER DURATION (LESS THAN 3
HOURS) WILL PRECLUDE A HEADLINES ATTM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...COLD AND CRISP DAY IN STORE AS MAX T'S ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S, A STARK CONTRAST TO THE 60S AND 70S OBSERVED
ON MON. BRISK NWRLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SATURDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 20-25 RANGE, EVEN
CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND ~50.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITION TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH AND
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF ENC. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST 28/12Z
SUITE AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES LEAD TO LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST, ESP SOUTHERN HALF WHERE 60-80% IN THE FORECAST NOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
- CLEAR BUT BREEZY AGAIN TUES UNDER CLEAR SKIES
COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY TRANSITED AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEAR OF THE OUTER BANKS. SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING
OVERHEAD WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING CIRRI, BUT CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WED. MAIN
HAZARD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WINDS WITH
ONGOING GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT, ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35
KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARBY. ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS, GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE LIKELY.
WINDS BECOME MORE STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN TOMORROW IN DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GUSTS TO 20-25
KT ARE EXPECTED, UP TO 30 KT FOR OBX TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 3 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES...
- GALES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
- GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-20 WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. SCA MORE LIKELY GULF WATERS
WED NIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING.
- DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA DEVELOPING IN WINDS AND SEAS IN
IT'S WAKE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SWRLY GRADIENT BRINGING SOLID GALES OF 40-45
KT TO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STOUT SCA WINDS OF
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY AROUND 6 PM
WITH GALES CONT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS + NRN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND DUE TO STRONG CAA AND GOOD MIXING. GUSTS TO 40 KT EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT GRAD WEAKENS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WRLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH GENERAL WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT WITH
WSWRLY GRADIENT INC GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THUR WITH NRLY WIND SURGE BRINGING SCA TO THE SOUNDS AND
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. RAIN APPEARS WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS THOUGH DEPENDS ON THE LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH WITH DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ON TUE
AS LOW RH'S COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER ABOUT 3/4PM BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS.
THIS THREAT HOWEVER WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL, WITH RH'S GENERALLY NOT TANKING UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 3/4PM AND ONLY GETTING DOWN TO THE 35-45% RANGE. AS WE GET
INTO TUESDAY, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW RH
VALUES (~25-35%), BREEZY WNW WINDS, AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE, WHILE RH'S ARE LOW AND SOILS REMAIN DRY,
WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER ON TUE CLOSER TO 15-20 KTS SO CRITERIA
FOR HEADLINES MAY NOT BE MET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL
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