486
FXUS62 KMHX 301808
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY STALLING TO THE S. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
TRAVELING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
AS OF 0200 TUESDAY...COLD, CRISP, AND CLOUDLESS DAY IN STORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. MAXTS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S, 20-30DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ABNORMALLY WARM
DAY. BRISK NWERLY WINDS IN PLACE DUE TO TIGHT SFC GRADIENT,
AIDED BY MIXING BROUGHT ON FROM TROUGH ALOFT IN PLACE OVER
ECONUS. THESE WINDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
~10DEG COLDER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS; MAXAPPT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0200 TUESDAY...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS GET TO AOB FREEZING JUST AFTER SUNSET AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. MAINLAND MINTS
IN LOW TO MID 20S, OBX UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0220 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO MID WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BREEZY WERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BUT
WEAKER THAN TUE. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND ~50. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BUT, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THEREFOR EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL FLOW.
A DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH AND
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF ENC LEADS TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE FA'S S. DEVELOPING LOW PUSHING OFF THE
SECONUS COAST LEADS TO LIKELY POPS SAT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE (60-70%).
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ENC. TO DRY FOR
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AND BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 0200 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCAS.
- GENERALLY WERLY WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 25 KT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. SCA MORE LIKELY GULF
WATERS WED NIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING.
- DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA DEVELOPING IN WINDS AND SEAS IN
IT'S WAKE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH GENERAL WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT
WITH WSWERLY GRADIENT INC GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THUR WITH NERLY WIND SURGE BRINGING SCA TO THE SOUNDS AND
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. RAIN APPEARS WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS, THOUGH DEPENDS ON THE LOW TRACK
AND STRENGTH WITH DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW RH'S COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW RH VALUES (~25-35%), BREEZY
WNW WINDS, AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE, WHILE RH'S
ARE LOW AND SOILS REMAIN DRY, WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER (15-20
KTS) SO CRITERIA FOR HEADLINES MAY NOT BE MET.
ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP, WITH
BREEZY WSW'RLY WINDS, LOW RH'S; THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY (~30-40%), AND CONTINUED DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A RISK FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ONCE AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
THE WEAKER WIND GUSTS (~15-20KTS) AND WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS RH'S ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB
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