181
FXUS62 KMHX 301837
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
137 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES SOUTH OF
ENC THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
MEANWHILE, A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER SE
CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES LOOKS
TO SUPPORT A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ENC THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT PROBABLY WON'T GET AS COLD AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD
THANKS TO THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAID, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE
TEENS TONIGHT, AND SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS ARE LIKELY
TO ACTUALLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE TEENS WILL PUT US CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK
SETUP DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPS AND WINDS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, AND
AFTER SOME INTERNAL COLLABORATION WITH NWS WILMINGTON, IT WAS
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE DAY, REACHING VIRGINIA/WRN NC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THAT FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME, ESPECIALLY
AS TROUGHING DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE COMBINED
IMPACT OF THE WIND AND A DRY AIRMASS.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD GIVE HIGHS A BIT OF A BOOST UP THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO NOT QUITE AS
COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO TONIGHT).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0220 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE DECREASING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BUT, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND THEREFOR EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL
FLOW. A DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW, IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED, AND WEAKER,
SYSTEM, WITH A LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF ENC. CONSEQUENTLY,
MOST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF ENC. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR MUCH OF ENC WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATE. THE GREATEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG, AND JUST INLAND
OF, THE CRYSTAL COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ENC. TO DRY FOR
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AND BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 0200 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STILL APPEARS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25KT OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY, BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15- 25KT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
DURING THIS TIME, A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF 25KT WIND GUSTS
APPEARS LIKELY. SEAS OF 4-7FT THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LAY
DOWN TO 3-5FT BY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS BUILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH THROUGH SURF CITY THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
AND THE ELEVATED SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE HEADLINES APPEARS
LIKELY TO COVER THE BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THUR WITH NERLY WIND SURGE BRINGING SCA TO THE SOUNDS AND
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC LATTER HALF OF
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH
THIS LOW, BUT POTENTIALLY STILL PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A RISK
OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW RH'S COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW RH VALUES (~25-35%), BREEZY
WNW WINDS, AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE, WHILE RH'S
ARE LOW AND SOILS REMAIN DRY, WIND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER (15-20
KTS) SO CRITERIA FOR HEADLINES MAY NOT BE MET.
ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP, WITH
BREEZY WSW'RLY WINDS, LOW RH'S; THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY (~30-40%), AND CONTINUED DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A RISK FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ONCE AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
THE WEAKER WIND GUSTS (~15-20KTS) AND WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS RH'S ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/CEB
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