209
FXUS62 KMHX 311739
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY, STALLING ACROSS OR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ENC
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 0215 WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY,
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, REACHING
VIRGINIA/WNC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME, ESPECIALLY AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN WINDS DURING THE DAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE COMBINED IMPACT
OF THE WIND AND A DRY AIRMASS.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD GIVE
HIGHS A BIT OF A BOOST UP THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS.
MAXT IN UPPER 40S N, LOW 50S SWERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0220 WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SWERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT -> WARMER MINTS, AROUND OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED
OVER CAN WILL ACT TO BUMP THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGHING THROUGH
THE AREA, BACKING WINDS TO BE MORE SWERLY, CUTTING DOWN ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFICIENCY AND KEEPING SLIGHT WAA REGIME IN
PLACE LEADING TO A WARMER OVERNIGHT. MINTS AROUND FREEZING
INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WATERY LOCALES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0230 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE DECREASING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BUT, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND THEREFOR EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ZONAL
FLOW. A DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE N THU, WITH
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING IT N OF THE FA IN VA WHILE SELECT MODELS
CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING, AND STALLING ANYWHERE FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SOUTH
OF WILMINGTON, WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN N OF THE
BOUNDARY. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE FRONT MAKING IT TO, BUT
NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FA. BIGGEST IMPACT TO FORECAST ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH WILL BE WINDS AND
MINT THURS, AS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF FROPA OR NOT.
SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY SLOWED ON WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST TO BE A QUICKER MOVING SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE LA/AL/GA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, NOT REACHING THE SECONUS COAST UNTIL ABOUT
SUNSET. WITH THU'S FRONT POTENTIALLY NOT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FA, THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED BACK N, CUTTING ACROSS THE FA ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST AND HATT. THE GREATEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ALONG, AND JUST INLAND OF, THE CRYSTAL COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. SFC HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT,
PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF ENC. A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS (GENERALLY ABOUT 15 KFT) AND
MAYBE SOME LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE START OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN SOME THIS EVENING FALLING BELOW 10 KTS BY ABOUT 21/22Z
AND THEN REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. WHILE WINDS INLAND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS,
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS STARTING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT WINDS
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON THURSDAY AS WELL ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH THEY WILL VEER BACK TO A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN AT PGV AND
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT A PERIOD BETWEEN 03-07Z OF LLWS NOTED HERE
AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE CONCERNS GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE RAIN
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC.
MARINE
AS OF 0300 WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- NEXT ROUND OF SCAS ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMSOUND
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCAS FOR NERN SOUNDS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.
- LOW PRESSURE EXITING SECONUS COAST LATE SAT IMPACTS THE AREA
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND RAIN.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY, BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15- 25KT AS A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC TROUGHING
PUSHES E ACROSS AREA WATERS. DURING THIS TIME, A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF 25KT WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY. FIRST CUT AT
SCAS HAVE BEEN ADDED, THOUGH DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND THE AREA
COVERED BY THESE HAZARDS. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CROATAN, ROANOKE,
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS OUT OF THIS ROUND OF HAZARD ISSUANCE AS
CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL OVER THESE ZONES. SEAS 3-5FT BUILD
BACK TO 4-7 FT THIS EVENING INTO THU MORNING AS WINDS BUILD.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT MOVES APPROACHES
LATE THUR. GUIDANCE NOW MORE SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING. CURRENT FORECAST NOW HAS THE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE AROUND CAPE HATT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT'S
FORCAST WHICH HAD THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER S TOWARD CAPE
FEAR. NERLY WIND SURGE BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO WATERS N OF
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC AT OR AFTER SUNSET
SAT NIGHT. WITH THU FRONT STALLING FURTHER N, THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, WHICH WILL WORK EWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HAS SHIFTED BACK
N WITH LATEST BATCH OF GUIDANCE. EXPECTING ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS AND RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK LATE SUN, PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1235 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR REACHING IFD CRITERIA BUT GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, LOW FUEL MOISTURES, POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY, AND
MIN RH AROUND 30-35% THIS AFTERNOON, THIS COULD BRING INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS ENC. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA,
HOWEVER, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. IFD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF ENC UNTIL 6PM PER NCFS REQUEST
WITH ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR CELEBRATORY NEW YEAR'S EVE IGNITION
SOURCES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB
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