539
FXUS62 KMHX 312330
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
630 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY, STALLING ACROSS OR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ENC
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 PM WED...ADJUSTED MIN T'S DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES, ESP
NEAR THE COAST ON THE MAINLAND, AS SOME AREAS ALREADY DOWN TO
THEIR FORECAST LOWS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISC...AS OF 1345 WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERN NC REMAINS IN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN, SITTING HALFWAY
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO TO THE NORTH AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA BRINGING DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER UPSHOT IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TODAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15
OCCASIONALLY 20 KTS WITH MIN RH'S AROUND 30 PERCENT. MORE DETAILS IN
THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
MAXING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S INLAND WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT HELPING LOWS TO MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO
LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 1345 WEDNESDAY...
NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT OF A PATTERN FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT WILL TRY TO WORK
IT'S WAY SOUTHWARD. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
PRECIPITATION, THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WINDS RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY
OR NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON/EVENING AT 5-10 KTS GUSTING
PLUS OR MINUS 14 KTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1345 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE DECREASING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BUT, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND THEREFOR EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH ZONAL FLOW. A DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE N
THU, WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING IT N OF THE FA IN VA WHILE
SELECT MODELS CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING, AND STALLING ANYWHERE FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SOUTH OF WILMINGTON, WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN N OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE
FRONT MAKING IT TO, BUT NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FA. BIGGEST
IMPACT TO FORECAST ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH
WILL BE WINDS AND MINT THURS, AS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED REGARDLESS
OF FROPA OR NOT.
SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY SLOWED ON WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST TO BE A QUICKER MOVING SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE LA/AL/GA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, NOT REACHING THE SECONUS COAST UNTIL ABOUT
SUNSET. WITH THU'S FRONT POTENTIALLY NOT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FA, THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED BACK N, CUTTING ACROSS THE FA ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST AND HATT. THE GREATEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ALONG, AND JUST INLAND OF, THE CRYSTAL COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
MO CLEAR SKIES. SFC HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT,
PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF ENC. A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS (GENERALLY ABOUT 15 KFT) AND
MAYBE SOME LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE START OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN SOME THIS EVENING FALLING BELOW 10 KTS BY ABOUT 21/22Z
AND THEN REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON
THURSDAY AS WELL ACROSS INLAND AREAS, THOUGH THEY WILL VEER BACK
TO A WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE RAIN
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC.
MARINE
AS OF 1345 WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- NEXT ROUND OF SCAS ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMSOUND
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
- LOW PRESSURE EXITING COAST LATE SAT IMPACTS THE AREA WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND RAIN.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY, BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15- 25KT AS A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC TROUGHING PUSHES E ACROSS AREA
WATERS. DURING THIS TIME, A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF 25KT WIND GUSTS
APPEARS LIKELY. SEAS 3-5FT BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS BUILD.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BACK DOOR DRY FRONT APPROACHES LATE THUR.
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND EVEN IF IT DOES BRING
IT THROUGH IT IS FLEETING.
WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WORKS EWARD FROM SECONUS,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE FROM GA TO SC AT OR AFTER SUNSET SAT
NIGHT. WITH THU FRONT STALLING EVEN FURTHER N, THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
WHICH WILL WORK EWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HAS SHIFTED BACK N WITH
LATEST BATCH OF GUIDANCE. EXPECTING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AND RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS LIKELY REACHING SCA ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK LATE SUN, PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1235 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES....
- POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR REACHING IFD CRITERIA BUT GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, LOW FUEL MOISTURES, POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY, AND
MIN RH AROUND 30-35% THIS AFTERNOON, THIS COULD BRING INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS ENC. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA,
HOWEVER, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. IFD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF ENC UNTIL 6PM PER NCFS REQUEST
WITH ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR CELEBRATORY NEW YEAR'S EVE IGNITION
SOURCES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/TL
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...RTE/CEB
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