924
FXUS62 KMHX 010647
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, STALLING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ENC
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1 AM THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING
THROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE UPTICK IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS, AT LEAST SOME LOW-LEVEL MIXING HAS LED TO
RISING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF ENC,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 30S TO NEAR/JUST
ABOVE 40 F. WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFFSHORE LATER TODAY, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS ENC TODAY, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE, ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED (MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM THURSDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS CALMING ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
LOW-30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER-30S TO
LOW-40S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1345 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SEASONABLE TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF ENC THIS
WEEKEND
FRIDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS/NEAR ENC ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH ENC ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM TO THE UPPER-50S/NEAR 60 F.
SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BEFORE TRAVERSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF
THE CRYSTAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL TO
ENC SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE 0.5-1". TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE (HIGHS IN THE 50S) AHEAD OF THE LOW ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY/MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS NEAR
50 SUNDAY/MONDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE, WINDS SWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND LOW-TO-MID
60S WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME WNW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KT,
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO PASS ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE RAIN AND
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC.
MARINE
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS
- LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING ALONG THE COASTLINE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
BRINGS RAIN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS
ACROSS AREA WATERS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX. WAVES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE UPTICK IN WINDS THUS FAR, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST STILL SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS THROUGH ~NOON TODAY BEFORE WAVES SUBSIDE.
WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS (GUSTS 15-20 KTS) ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
WESTERLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY...WINDS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KTS. WAVES 2-4 FT.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
ENC COASTLINE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PULLING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. EXPECTING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
RAIN ACROSS AREA WATERS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK LATE SUNDAY AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...ZC
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