990
FXUS62 KMHX 251814
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
114 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, SOUTHERN CRAVEN,
WEST CARTERET AND COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT WARMING AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH ENC TODAY,
BRINGING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST.
2) COLD AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-40 DEGREE
RANGE AND LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS CHILL FORECAST TO
BETWEEN 5-15 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 0.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
REISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, SOUTHERN
CRAVEN, WEST CARTERET AND COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z AS
TEMPS HAVE NOT WARMED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO AS STEADIER PRECIP
BEGINS TO FALL. TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 28-32 EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WE DO EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOW RISE AGAIN AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL EXPIRE APPROPRIATE ZONES AS
CONDITIONS DICTATE.
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS SPREADING ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, ALONG THE COAST TEMPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WARMING INTO THE 30S AND 40S AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT/TROUGH BACKS
TOWARD THE AREA. NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING THIS
MORNING FREEZING RAIN TOTALS UP TO .10-.20" POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES THROUGH MID DAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT ACROSS ENC LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING MODERATE RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. GREATEST
WARMING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
TRACK WHERE 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE
LOW TRACK WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE US 17 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK WHILE THE FAR INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIP
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
STRONG FORCING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE COAST THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG CAA WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-45 DEGREE RANGE, AND LOWS IN
THE 15-25 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15
DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
APPEARS EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 0 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IFR AND LIFR. STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY 20Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PUSHING EAST
OF THE TERMINALS EARLY MON MORNING. STRONG LLWS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT, OUT OF THE S-SW AT FL020 WITH
SFC WINDS 5-10 KT OUT OF THE NNW SLOWLY BECOMING SWERLY. NW
WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING E TO NE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS, HOWEVER A COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT IS BACKING INTO THE
AREA AND WINDS HAVE BECOME SE FROM THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BRINGING SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT, AND TO AROUND 30-35 KT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ONCE THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WINDS BECOME MAINLY SW AROUND 15-25 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH STRONG SHEAR THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NW 20-30 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS W/NW AT 15-25 KTS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WITH
MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/RCF
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