383
FXUS62 KMHX 260127
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
827 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FAR WESTERN PARTS OF
ENC. ADDED THUNDER TO FCST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AOA 500 J/KG
NOTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ENC TONIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST.
2) COLD AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-40 DEGREE
RANGE AND LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS CHILL FORECAST TO
BETWEEN 5-15 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING 0-10 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS IS TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS OF THIS UPDATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO MONDAY.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE OF
SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECASTS AS INLAND AREAS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN
COASTAL PLAIN HAVE NOT WARMED UP AS MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING HERE. FURTHER EAST THE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
TO 50S AND 60S ALONG THE OBX. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM
WITH A NON DIURNAL HIGH CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE 50S AND 60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AND WARM AIR
GRADUALLY INFILTRATES ENC. AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S BY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BROUGHT THIS
MORNINGS MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND TRACKING NE'WARDS. THERE IS SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT ENC WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER WEST OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT UNTIL TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 7PM AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING STRONG FORCING. WILL NOTE THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
(15% OR LESS) THAT TEMPS DONT GET ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY
(7-8PM TIMEFRAME) ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MARTIN COUNTY AS
RAIN ENTERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NON IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN/RAIN BEFORE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO
QUICKLY SWEEP TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT POTENTIALLY EXITING OFF
THE COAST AS EARLY AS DAYBREAK. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG CAA WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-45 DEGREE RANGE, AND LOWS IN
THE 15-25 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15
DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH IF THIS HOLDS
WOULD RESULT IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF ENC MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BUT COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT APPEARS EVEN
COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 0 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY LIFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MON AM. HAVE ADDED TEMPO FOR PL AT KISO
AND KPGV ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AS BAND OF PRECIP ARRIVES
AND MOVES THROUGH. STRONG LLWS CONT WITH THE VERY STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND CONT CAD SETUP, ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT,
OUT OF THE S-SW .
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS CURRENTLY VARY FROM NW TO SW ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY AT ABOUT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
HOWEVER, ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES ARE CURRENTLY NOTED WITH SW'RLY WINDS
AT 25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING NORTH OF
THE ALBEMARLE BY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA WINDS BECOME MAINLY SW AROUND 10-20 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WITH STRONG SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS
NW'RLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35
KTS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS PERSISTING INTO MON NIGHT.
SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 6-8 FT THROUGH MON EVENING ALONG
OUR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK: BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NW 20-30 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS W/NW AT 15-25 KTS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WITH
MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...TL/RCF
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RCF
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