943
FXUS62 KMHX 261759
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA FOR WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 5-10 DEGREES TUESDAY
MORNING. A CLIMATE SECTION HAS BEEN ADDED FOR POTENTIALLY
RECORD LOW TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS ENC AND SUPPORTING
STRATIFORM SHOWERS. A WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING.
2) A COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST EACH DAY. EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS WILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE COLDEST
MORNINGS BEING TUESDAY AND SATURDAY (5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS).
3) A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG CROSS THE ECONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH
A LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING. THIS
FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRATIFORM SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WINTRY
MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF MARTIN AND
PITT COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. TO THE EAST, ALL PRECIP IS LIQUID.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING
STRONG CAA TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 15-30
DEGREE RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
ENC MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING FOR 5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS.
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT/MORNING WITH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING BEING THE NEXT COLDEST PERIOD
(5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS). A MOISTURE-STARVED REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NOBX THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ECONUS THIS
WEEKEND WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THERE'S STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS PATTERN WILL
PLAY OUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST, BUT THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER TO IMPACT ENC.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CEILINGS PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, WHILE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER
FARTHER INLAND. MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 20 TO 25 KT WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
STRONG NW WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 15-20 KT
SW WINDS WILL BECOME NWERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30+ KT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
A FEW GALE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS TONIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. 6-8 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO 5-6 FT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE WINDS VEER BUT WILL
BUILD BACK UP TO 5-8 FT TONIGHT WITH THE SURGE OF NW WINDS. SCAS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES THIS WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 01/27
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9/1940 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 18/1985 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 11/1940 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...OJC
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