982
FXUS62 KMHX 262327
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
627 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES BETWEEN 7-11PM ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHICH COULD SPURN SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DARE COUNTY.
2) A COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE COLDEST MORNINGS BEING TUESDAY
AND SATURDAY (5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS).
3) A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ECONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH
A LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SETTLE INTO ENC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE 30S TO MID 40S AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT HAD BROUGHT RAINFALL TO ENC EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED OFFSHORE. STILL SEEING CLOUDCOVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS ENC
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, DRY AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO ENC LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY AND SKIES CLEARING FROM
NW TO SE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HI-RES CAMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO
LATCH ON TO THE IDEA THAT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ENC IT WIL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING AND MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY ALONG OUR NE'RN
ZONES BEFORE WE DRY OUT COMPLETELY LATE TONIGHT. AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURING IS LOW (~20%) BUT THINK
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS FEATURE TO INCLUDE IT
IN THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE. EITHER WAY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SO NOT PLANNING ON ANY HEADLINE
ISSUANCE CURRENTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH A SECONDARY FRONT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
STRONG CAA TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
30-40 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 15-30 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ENC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR 5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT/MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING BEING THE NEXT COLDEST PERIOD
(5-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS). A MOISTURE-STARVED REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NOBX THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WE WILL HAVE A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
A DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM TRACK WILL BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THIS LOW THEN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ENC
ITSELF AS BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY ARE CURRENTLY STILL WELL AWAY
FROM THE US, SO THE UPPER AIR NETWORK HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
SAMPLE BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY QUITE YET. EITHER WAY, IF BOTH
PIECES OF ENERGY CAN PHASE TOGETHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO BRING
SEVERAL IMPACTS (MARINE/COASTAL/WINTER) TO ENC INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WHILE NOTHING IS SET IN STONE, GLOBAL GUIDANCE (BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS, TRENDS
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED TO HASH OUT THE EXACT
SEVERITY OF IMPACTS TO ENC.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH DRY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OUR WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT 10-20 KT NW'RLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
ALL OUR WATERS WITH 5-7 FT SEAS NOTED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS CAA
BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH 20 TO 30 KT NW'RLY WINDS
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ KTS INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, BUT DON'T THINK IT
WILL BE LONG ENOUGH IN DURATION TO RESULT IN AN UPGRADE FROM
SCA. 5-8 FT SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
SURGE OF NW WINDS. CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND BACKING TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION WHILE SEAS
FALL TO 2-5 FT RESULTING IN AN END TO ALL SCA'S BY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS ANOTHER
BRIEF ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES THIS WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 01/27
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9/1940 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 18/1985 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 11/1940 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...EH/SGK
MARINE...RCF
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