304
FXUS62 KMHX 270802
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND AND BRING IMPACTS TO EASTERN NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IS BUILDING IN AND WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK. BITTER WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH MORNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (0-10 DEGREE
WIND CHILLS).
2) A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ECONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH
A LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY COLD, DRY AIR IS BLASTING IN FROM THE NW. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW 20S ALONG THE OBX. THESE COLD TEMPS,
PAIRED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS, WILL SEND WIND CHILLS INTO THE 5-15
DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF ENC UNTIL 10 AM. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 30-45 DEGREES AND
LOWS AROUND 15-30 DEGREES. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 10S TO LOW 20S THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COLDEST
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WITH 0-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ECONUS THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL KEY FACTORS IN FUTURE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DIVE INTO THE SECONUS FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SE COAST WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW WILL GREATLY DICTATE HOW THIS
FORECAST TRENDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ENC WILL SEE
MARINE, COASTAL, AND WINTER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. THE WPC WINTER
STORM SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS A 50-60% CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS
ACROSS ENC THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS AN INCREASE FROM 20-40% ABOUT
24 HOURS AGO. HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL BECOME
CLEARER WITH FUTURE UPDATES, SO USERS SHOULD BE LEERY OF ANY
SNOW MAPS THIS FAR OUT.
POPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT, PEAK ON SATURDAY, AND CLEAR OUT
ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE COAST BEING THE TRANSITION ZONE
AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE MIXED PRECIP. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND IT'S MUCH TOO SOON TO NAIL
DOWN ANY AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NW
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED INLAND BUT WILL SEE 20-30 KT GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST (INCLUDING EWN) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH HERE AS WELL. WINDS BACK TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WE ARE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO PASS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, STRONG WINDS, AND WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA..
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW THAT THE GUSTY NW WINDS FROM THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF CAA ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING, SO THE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW
AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AND SEAS FALL TO
2-5 FT. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCA WINDS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HOW BRIEF
THE PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET TODAY, THE EXISTING SCAS WERE EXTENDED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO COVER BOTH ROUNDS OF 25+ KT GUSTS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALES DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 01/27
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 12/1940 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 19/1940 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9/1940 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 18/1985 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 11/1940 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18/2003 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...OJC
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