931
FXUS62 KMHX 272307
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND, HOWEVER EXACT IMPACTS
TO EASTERN NC REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE WEEK. BITTER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH MORNING WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD (0-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS).
2) A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ECONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH
A LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SEVERAL HAZARDS TO ENC INCLUDING WINTRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NO REAL CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY KEEPING THINGS ON THE COLD SIDE. THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 30-45 DEGREES AND LOWS AROUND 15-30
DEGREES. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 10S
TO LOW 20S THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE FORECAST
IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH 0-10 DEGREE
WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. AT THE
SAME TIME WE WILL BE MONITORING TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES, THE
FIRST WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE GULF COAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA ON WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS FORECAST
TO RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SOMETIME FRI OR SATURDAY WITH THIS LOW THEN TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST WHILE DEEPENING, POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS SETUP
LEADING TO CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND IF AND WHERE THEY PHASE TOGETHER OVER
THE WEEKEND. IF THEY WERE TO PHASE TOGETHER A STRONGER AND MORE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, IF THESE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES DON'T PHASE OR PHASES WELL OFFSHORE, A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AND LOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WOULD OCCUR NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE TILT WHICH WILL IMPACT WHEN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHATEVER LOW DOES
DEVELOP.
ALL OF THE ABOVE WILL GREATLY DICTATE HOW THE FORECAST TRENDS
FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING THAT
ENC WILL SEE MARINE, COASTAL, AND POTENTIALLY WINTER IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE WPC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX NOW SHOWS A
60-70% CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS ENC THIS WEEKEND. THIS
IS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM 50-60% ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. HOW
IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH FUTURE
UPDATES, SO USERS SHOULD BE LEERY OF ANY SNOW MAPS THIS FAR OUT.
POPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT, PEAK ON SATURDAY, AND CLEAR OUT
ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE COAST BEING THE TRANSITION ZONE
AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE MIXED PRECIP. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND IT'S MUCH TOO SOON TO NAIL
DOWN ANY AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER DRY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS COMING UP TO 15-25 KTS, BUT MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND EAST
OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SOME IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN
NC.
MARINE
LATEST OBS ACROSS ENC SHOW WIDESPREAD SW'RLY WINDS AT ABOUT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA WINDS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT W TO WNW WINDS AT
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT, WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS SEAS WILL LIKELY ONLY BUILD TO 3-5 TO 4-6 FT
TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DOWN
TO 10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE NW ACROSS ALL WATERS THUS ENDING
ALL SCA'S. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRANSIT ACROSS OUR WATERS
WED EVENING POTENTIALLY BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS OVERNIGHT WED.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALES AND POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE
WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...RCF/OJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page