199
FXUS62 KMHX 280835
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIALLY
MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ECONUS AND
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK.
BITTER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH MORNING WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD
(-5 TO 10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS).
2) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WINTER STORM TO BRING SNOW,
GUSTY WINDS, AND MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS TO ENC THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER ENC FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 30-45 DEGREES AND LOWS AROUND 15-30
DEGREES. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
10S TO LOW 20S THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO 10 DEGREES. POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, BECOMING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS WEEKEND AS IT CROSSES THE ECONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DIVE INTO THE SECONUS FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SE COAST THIS WEEKEND. IF THESE SHORTWAVES PHASE TOGETHER, THE
LOW MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS. IF THESE SHORTWAVES DON'T PHASE TOGETHER, OR
PHASE TOGETHER FARTHER OFFSHORE, THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND
WOULD NOT INTENSIFY AS RAPIDLY.
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST, AND RAIN
ALONG THE OBX. ALL P-TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE'S CONCERN
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW GIVEN FORECAST GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 40-50+ MPH ALONG THE
OBX.
THE WPC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX NOW SHOWS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF MODERATE IMPACTS AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS
ENC. HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
FUTURE UPDATES, SO USERS SHOULD BE LEERY OF ANY DETERMINISTIC SNOW
TOTAL MAPS THIS FAR OUT. SNOW TOTALS VARY GREATLY AMONG THE
MODELS, AND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW'S STRENGTH AND TRACK,
IT'S TOO SOON FOR ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS.
THIS POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A HIGHER
TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER DRY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS SNOW TO MOST OF EASTERN NC.
MARINE
SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND FOR
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30+ KT AND 4-6 FT SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT AS
THEY BACK TO THE W TODAY AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NW AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT (6 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS).
OUTLOOK: SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...OJC
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