185
FXUS62 KMHX 282042
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MODERATE TO MAJOR
IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOR TONIGHT, MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT (UNTIL 10 AM
TOMORROW) AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES BEHIND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.
2) HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MODERATE TO MAJOR
IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
3) MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE WINTER STORM, WITH
WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
4) MARINE...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
NC COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM TOMORROW DUE TO WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO 5-15 DEGREES. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, BUT A STIFF NW BREEZE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY
SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT EASTERN NC WILL SEE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA (35-50 MPH), HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST (50-60 MPH), WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES
AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE STORM. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, BECOMING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS WEEKEND AS IT CROSSES THE ECONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DIVE INTO THE SECONUS FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE
TOGETHER, ALLOWING THE LOW TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST, AND
RAIN ALONG THE OBX. ALL P-TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS
IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.
THE WPC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX NOW SHOWS A 80-90% CHANCE
OF MODERATE IMPACTS AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS
ENC. HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
FUTURE UPDATES, AND SNOW TOTALS CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY AMONG
THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
FINALLY, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE.
THIS POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A HIGHER
TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE WINTER STORM, EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 0 AS AIR TEMPS
FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WERLY WINDS BECOME MORE NWERLY
TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING TO 10G15KT THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO MOST OF
EASTERN NC STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
ENC TONIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO WNW/NW 20-30 KTS WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KT GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOST OF THE
INLAND SOUNDS, AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, ENDING BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT,
AND THEN INCREASE TO 5-7 FT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS COME
DOWN BELOW 6 FT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS. SEAS COULD REACH 12-18 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RCF/OJC
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