990
FXUS62 KMHX 291546
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR THE
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WATCH) STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE
TO STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
2) MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE WINTER STORM, WITH
WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
3) MARINE...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
NC COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA (35-50 MPH INLAND AND 50-65 MPH
ALONG THE COAST), WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES, REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST.
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, BECOMING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
WEEKEND AS IT CROSSES THE ECONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY DIVE INTO THE SECONUS
FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THESE SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE TOGETHER, ALLOWING THE LOW TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST, AND RAIN ALONG
THE OBX. ALL P-TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS IS
WHEN THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK EARLY SUNDAY, CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THIS
TIME, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SUB-ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE, AND
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH RECORDS.
THE WPC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX NOW SHOWS A GREATER THAN 95%
CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS AND A 70-80% CHANCE OF MAJOR IMPACTS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, THERE'S A 85-95% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4", A 60-80% CHANCE
OF MORE THAN 8", AND A 35-55% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 12". GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIT NORTHEASTERN ZONES (NORTH OF HWY 264 AND EAST OF
HWY 17) AS THE SWEET SPOT FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS, SHOWING A 80-90%
CHANCE OF >4", 40-60% CHANCE OF >8", AND 50-70% CHANCE OF >12".
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND THAT WE'RE STILL MORE THAN
48 HOURS OUT FROM WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL,
WHICH MEANS THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS (UP OR DOWN) IN
THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONSISTENTLY GOING UP, THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY WHEN THINKING ABOUT STORM
PREPARATION. NO MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL NOT MELT
QUICKLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING
UNTIL MONDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS FROM DUCK TO
OCRACOKE FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. GUSTS
WILL BE 50-65 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND 35-50 MPH INLAND.
DUE TO THESE POWERFUL WINDS, MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. THIS STORM WILL
ALSO COINCIDE WITH A HIGHER TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FUTURE UPDATES.
PREPARATIONS YOU CAN TAKE AT THIS TIME: HAVE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES IN
YOUR HOME AND YOUR CAR, CHECK YOUR SMOKE AND CARBON MONOXIDE
DETECTORS, AND REPLENISH FUEL FOR YOUR CAR AND HEATING SOURCES.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, YOU'RE STOCKED
UP ON FOOD, WATER, AND MEDICATIONS, AND MAKE PLANS TO BRING
YOUR PETS INSIDE FROM THE EXTREME COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 2... EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND
THE WINTER STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SUB- ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT
RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
TOMORROW NIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MO SUNNY SKIES THROUGH TODAY. N TO NW'RLY
BREEZES TODAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 10-15 KT AT TIMES. NW WINDS
AND GUSTS RELAX TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KT TO INLAND EAST NC.
MARINE
CURRENT SCAS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15
KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS COULD REACH 12-20 FT.
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR THE
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WATCH) STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ203>205.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ131-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ135-154-156-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
156-158.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...OJC
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