544
FXUS62 KMHX 292112
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE ADDED BLIZZARD CONDITION MENTIONS FOR EASTERN
COASTAL COUNTIES.
STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR THE
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WATCH) STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
A HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OBX ZONES, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDING TO DOWNEAST CARTERET, MAINLAND DARE, AND TYRRELL
COUNTIES STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW.
SNOW RATES OF UP TO 1-2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN NC COAST (INCLUDING OBX)
B) WIND:
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 35-50 MPH INLAND, AND 55-70 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
OBX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES ESPECIALLY WHEN SNOW LOAD BECOMES AN ISSUE.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL UNFOLD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING
UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR
IMPACTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, AND COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COAST (INCLUDING OBX).
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS/HEAVY SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES.
POWER RESTORATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD
CONDITIONS, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER TERM POWER OUTAGES WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND THAT WE'RE STILL MORE THAN
36 HOURS OUT FROM WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL,
WHICH MEANS THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS (UP OR DOWN) IN
THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONSISTENTLY GOING UP, THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY WHEN THINKING ABOUT STORM
PREPARATION. NO MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL NOT MELT
QUICKLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING
UNTIL MONDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TENS TO
LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS IN THE SUB- ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND
AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM TOMORROW NIGHT UNTIL
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE
AS WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FT OF INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL). AT THIS TIME, GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM
DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO
DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE WATER RISES
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
PARTICULARLY UP THE NEUSE RIVER. ADDITIONAL CF RELATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE NEEDED AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N TO NWERLY BREEZES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 10- 15 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON,
EASING THIS EVENING. FRI LIGHT ENEERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF POOR FLYING CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KT TO INLAND
EAST NC. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM OFFSHORE WWARD FRI EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CATEGORIES. VIS,
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
BLOWING ACCUMULATED SNOW, WILL LIKELY BE IFR AT BEST, WITH LIFR OR
VLIFR HAVING STRONG POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL CESSATION AND FALLING OFF OF
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUN, THOUGH SNOW ON GROUND WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A BRIEF WINDOW OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS N TO NE AT
10-20 KTS, AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK: A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY
BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (64+ KTS) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS COULD REACH 15-20 FT.
STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR THE
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WATCH) STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FORECAST
TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT SEAS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-
198-199.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ046-047-196-203.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ046-047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ196.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ203>205.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR AMZ131.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ135-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ136.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR AMZ137.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ152-154.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SGK
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