498
FXUS62 KMHX 301100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL
TOTALS WITHIN EASTERN NC.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT BLIZZARD CONDITION
MENTIONS FOR EASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES.
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (UPGRADED TO
GALE WARNING) STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OBX ZONES AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY. WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
HYDE, TYRRELL, WASHINGTON, PAMLICO, SOUTHERN CRAVEN, AND
WESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES STARTING SATURDAY EVENING.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE OUTER BANKS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS FOR DOWNEAST.
CLIMATE SECTION ADDED FOR POTENTIAL RECORD LOWS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC,
WITH SOME SWATHS SEEING UP TO 12-18" WHERE BANDING OCCURS. SNOW
RATES OF UP TO 1-2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE EASTERN NC COAST (INCLUDING OBX). MEAN SNOWFALL TOTALS
TRENDED DOWN ALONG THE COAST, BUT HIGH END POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS.
B) WIND:
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 35-45 MPH INLAND, AND 55-65 MPH ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME WEAKER TREES
BLOWN DOWN.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS 10-20 FEET FOR COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL UNFOLD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, WITH SOME
SPOTS SEEING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. RECENT MESOSCALE MODELS
HAVE BROUGHT TO LIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY SLOTTING TO
OCCUR AS THIS LOW FORMS UP AND PROGRESSES NE'WORD. THIS DRY
SLOTTING COULD CERTAINLY THROW A WRENCH IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS THE LOCATION AND EXTENT IS UNCLEAR. IN ADDITION, ALONG THE
COAST COMPLEX INTERACTIONS WITH ANY STORMS ALONG THE GULF STREAM
COULD ROB COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATES. WHILE A HIGHER END POTENTIAL OF 1+ FEET OF SNOW
STILL EXISTS ALONG THE COAST, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED
DOWN TO 5-8" SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO SURF CITY. NORTH OF
OREGON INLET (NOBX), THERE IS STILL AMPLE SUPPORT OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS, REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 8-12".
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR IMPACTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW,
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND COULD
LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN NC
COAST (INCLUDING OBX).
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS/HEAVY SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES.
POWER RESTORATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD
CONDITIONS, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER TERM POWER OUTAGES WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
SLOT AND GULF STREAM INTERACTIONS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
SNOWFALL TOTALS. WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 30 HOURS OUT FROM WHEN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL, WHICH MEANS THERE'S STILL
ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS (UP OR DOWN) IN THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST
DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITIES
OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUING, THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY WHEN THINKING ABOUT STORM
PREPARATION. NO MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL NOT MELT
QUICKLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING
UNTIL MONDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE 10-20F SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SUB- ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND AREAS
TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM TONIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE
AS WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FT OF INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL). AT THIS TIME, GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM
DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO
DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE WATER RISES
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
PARTICULARLY UP THE NEUSE RIVER. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, AND ADDITIONAL CF RELATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED AS WELL WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM 00Z TO 06Z ON SAT, WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT AFTER 06-08Z SAT. LIGHT NERLY BREEZES
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN GUSTING 15-22KT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KT TO INLAND EAST NC. CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM OFFSHORE WWARD FRI EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CATEGORIES. VIS,
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
BLOWING ACCUMULATED SNOW, WILL LIKELY BE IFR AT BEST, WITH LIFR
OR VLIFR HAVING STRONG POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL CESSATION AND FALLING
OFF OF WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUN, THOUGH SNOW ON
GROUND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A BRIEF WINDOW OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS N TO NE AT 10-20 KTS, AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK: A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY
BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (64+
KTS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS COULD REACH
15-20 FT.
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR
THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WARNING) STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT
SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/02 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 12 1971 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 13 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/03 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9 1917 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 12 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-
199.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ045-
081-094-194-195.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ046-047-196-203.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ046-
047.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ203-205.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RJ
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