563
FXUS62 KMHX 302110
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT EASTERN NC WILL SEE A MAJOR WINTER
STORM DEVELOP TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN EASTERN NC.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT BLIZZARD CONDITION MENTIONS FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MENTIONED
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR
THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS WHICH ARE UNDER A GALE WARNING.
THESE ALL BEGIN STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OBX ZONES AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MAINLAND DARE AND HYDE, TYRRELL, WASHINGTON, BEAUFORT, PAMLICO,
SOUTHERN CRAVEN, AND WESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET. THERE IS NOW A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AS WELL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC,
WITH SOME SWATHS SEEING UP TO 12-18" WHERE BANDING OCCURS. SNOW
RATES OF UP TO 1-2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHERN OBX.
B) WIND:
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 40-55 MPH INLAND, AND 55-70 MPH ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME WEAKER TREES
BLOWN DOWN.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS 10-20 FEET FOR COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AS A MAJOR WINTER
STORM IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN LOCALIZED
AREAS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING FEATURES ENHANCING SNOW
TOTALS OR MESOSCALE AREAS OF DRY SLOTTING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER SNOW TOTALS. WHILE A HIGHER END
POTENTIAL OF 1+ FEET OF SNOW STILL EXISTS ALONG THE COAST, THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN TO 2-6" SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE WITH 4-10 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. NORTH OF OREGON INLET (NOBX), THERE IS STILL AMPLE
SUPPORT OF HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS, REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF 6-10".
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR IMPACTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW,
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND COULD
LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX
WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NC THOUGH CHANCES
ARE NOT ZERO HERE EITHER.
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS/HEAVY SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES.
POWER RESTORATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD
CONDITIONS, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER TERM POWER OUTAGES WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND NO TWO STORMS ARE ALIKE AND
SHIFTS IN MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT OVER SNOW
TOTALS AND WHO SEES WHAT. HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUING, THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS SHOULD
NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY WHEN THINKING ABOUT STORM PREPARATION. NO
MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL NOT MELT QUICKLY DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY,
BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE 10-20F SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SUB-ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING ON SUNDAY AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
TONIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE, MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS
WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ACROSS
DOWNEAST CARTERET, WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE OBX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FT OF
INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND LEVEL). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES FOR A THREAT
FOR 1-2 FT INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AS STRONG NE TO N
WINDS PILE UP WATER ALONG THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE. AT THIS TIME,
GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND
SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR
WATER RISES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
ALBEMARLE SOUND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT TO DUCK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE AVIATION FORECAST BUT GENERAL
TRENDS STILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS (SUB 3 KFT) BETWEEN ABOUT 05-08Z
TONIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS FROM A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A WINTER STORM
SETS UP. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL INCREASING IN INTENSITY SAT AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN ACROSS HATTERAS
ISLAND TO BEGIN WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW WHERE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED BUT EITHER WAY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST LOWER TO LESS THAN 3 MILES
AT TIMES SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE
LIGHT NE'RLY BREEZES TODAY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH N'RLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS BY 06-09Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KT TO INLAND EAST NC. CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM OFFSHORE WWARD FRI EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CATEGORIES. VIS,
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS
BLOWING ACCUMULATED SNOW, WILL LIKELY BE IFR AT BEST, WITH LIFR
OR VLIFR HAVING STRONG POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL CESSATION AND FALLING
OFF OF WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUN, THOUGH SNOW ON
GROUND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
BOATING CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS GALE FORCE
NE'RLY WINDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON OUR WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TONIGHT TO 5-7 AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THIS
EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS WHERE STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS REMAIN. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TO 8-12 FT
BY SAT EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS
FOR ALL MARINE TRAFFIC WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN
WORSE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WATERS.
OUTLOOK: A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIALLY BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS OF
40-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS (64+ KTS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH 15-20 FT.
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR
THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS (GALE WARNING) STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT
SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/02 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 12 1971 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 13 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/03 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9 1917 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 12 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044-046-047-079-080-091-196-203.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-
198-199.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ045-081-090-092-094-193>195-198-199.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ045-
080-081-094-194-195.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ046-
047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ203-205.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ204-205.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-
135-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SGK/RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF
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