771
FXUS62 KMHX 310836
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT EASTERN NC WILL SEE A MAJOR
WINTER STORM DEVELOP TODAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN EASTERN NC.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT BLIZZARD CONDITION MENTIONS FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MENTIONED
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SAVE FOR
THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS WHICH ARE UNDER A GALE WARNING.
THESE ALL BEGIN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OBX ZONES AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MAINLAND DARE AND HYDE, TYRRELL, WASHINGTON, BEAUFORT, PAMLICO,
SOUTHERN CRAVEN, AND WESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC,
WITH SOME SWATHS SEEING UP TO 12-18" WHERE BANDING OCCURS. SNOW
RATES OF UP TO 1-2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHERN OBX.
B) WIND:
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 40-50 MPH INLAND, AND 50-70 MPH ALONG OBX AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET CO. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME
WEAKER TREES BLOWN DOWN.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS 10-20 FEET FOR COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, WITH SOME
SPOTS SEEING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
FEATURES ENHANCING SNOW TOTALS OR MESOSCALE AREAS OF DRY
SLOTTING WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER SNOW TOTALS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-6" ALONG
HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE AS THEY WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
RAIN TODAY, SWITCHING TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY WETTER SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. THE RESIDENCE TIME OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MUCH LESS
FOR THIS REGION, AROUND 6-8 HOURS, HELPING KEEP THE TOTALS
LOWER. FURTHER NORTH IN NOBX, PTYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT ALLOWING FOR TOTALS TO REACH NEAR A FOOT
(POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH ANY MESOSCALE BANDING). AWAY FROM OBX,
WIDESPREAD TOTALS 6-11" ARE EXPECTED, AGAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS
WHERE BANDING SETS UP. THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS IN 00Z AND 06Z
RUNS FOR WHERE THIS BANDING SETS UP. SCENARIO 1 IS IT SETS UP
AS A LINE FROM NOBX DOWN TO THE CRYSTAL COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE LINE, AND FOR THIS REASON DID NUDGE
UP THE SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD EAST OF HWY 17 TO NEAR 12".
SCENARIO 2 HAS THE BAND FORMING FURTHER INLAND, ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 17. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO, SO
BROUGHT SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY 1-3" WEST OF HWY 17. NEW FCST SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS REGION ARE 8-10". GIVEN THE WINDSHIELD WIPER
NATURE OF EACH MODEL RUN, AND A FRUSTRATING LACK OF CLARITY ON
ONE SOLUTION GIVEN THE LOW HAS NOT FORMED YET, ELECTED TO KEEP
CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST RELATIVELY MINOR WITH THIS UPDATE.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET 6" OR 12", IMPACTS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AS
TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR IMPACTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW,
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND COULD
LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE WOULDN'T
SEE THIS UNTIL THE PTYPE SWITCHES OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS/HEAVY SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES.
POWER RESTORATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD
CONDITIONS, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER TERM POWER OUTAGES WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND NO TWO STORMS ARE ALIKE AND
SHIFTS IN MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT OVER SNOW
TOTALS AND WHO SEES WHAT. HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUING, THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS SHOULD
NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY WHEN THINKING ABOUT STORM PREPARATION. NO
MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL NOT MELT QUICKLY DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY,
BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE 10-20F SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SUB-ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING ON SUNDAY AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
TONIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE, MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS
WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ACROSS
DOWNEAST CARTERET, WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE OBX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FT OF
INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND LEVEL). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES FOR A THREAT
FOR 1-2 FT INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AS STRONG NE TO N
WINDS PILE UP WATER ALONG THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE. AT THIS TIME,
GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND
SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR
WATER RISES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
ALBEMARLE SOUND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT TO DUCK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS, THEN LIKELY
DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD
SUB- VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 6-12Z. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL INCREASING IN INTENSITY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE.
COULD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN ACROSS
HATTERAS/OCRACOKE ISLANDS TO BEGIN WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION
TO SNOW WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESP WITH VSBYS
WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. LIGHT NE'RLY BREEZES THIS EVENING
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, PEAKING SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY AS STRONG COASTAL LOW BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND
POTENTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40
KT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
THEN LIKELY REMAINING VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIALLY BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOATING CONDITIONS HAVE
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AS GALE FORCE NE'RLY WINDS BEGIN TO
ENCROACH UPON OUR WATERS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SEAS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED TO 4-6 FT ACROSS WATERS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
FURTHER WITH STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS WHERE STRONG
GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF 6 HOUR WINDOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND COULD
SEE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (> 64KTS). THE BRIEF DURATION
PRECLUDED ANY UPGRADE FROM STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE MARINE
WARNINGS. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TO 8-12 FT BY SAT
EVENING, REACHING 10-20 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS FOR ALL MARINE TRAFFIC
THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT
SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/02 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 12 1971 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 13 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/03 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9 1917 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 12 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044-046-
047-079-080-091-196-203.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
199-203.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ045-081-090-
092-094-193>195-198-199.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ045-080-081-094-194-195.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ046-047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ203-205.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ136.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SGK/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SGK/RCF/RJ
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