800
FXUS62 KMHX 010135
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
835 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME
SLIGHT LOWERING OF TOTALS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN,
BUT NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE PRODUCTS THAT ARE, OR WILL SHORTLY
BE, IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM ONGOING WITH LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE DUMPING SNOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO TOMORROW.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NC, WITH SOME SWATHS SEEING UP TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN A FOOT WHERE BANDING OCCURS. SNOW RATES OF UP TO
1-2" PER HOUR HAVE BEEN SEEN, AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX.
B) WIND:
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 40-50 MPH INLAND, AND 50-70 MPH ALONG OBX AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET CO. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE WINDS ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
SOME WEAKER TREES BLOWN DOWN.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 TOMORROW AND
MONDAY MORNINGS, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS 10-20 FEET FOR COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO UNFOLD TONIGHT, AND INTO TOMORROW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY
OFF THE NC COAST. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW, WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY SEEING UP TO OR MORE THAN A
FOOT OF SNOW. MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN LOCALIZED
AREAS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING FEATURES ENHANCING SNOW
TOTALS OR MESOSCALE AREAS OF DRY SLOTTING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER SNOW TOTALS. MODERATE TO OCC HEAVY SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, HEAVIEST
NOW FOCUSED OVER EASTERN CARTERET AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS CONTINUE, WITH TRAVEL BEING EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR IMPACTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW,
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND COULD
LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE WOULDN'T
SEE THIS UNTIL THE PTYPE SWITCHES OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG
WINDS/HEAVY SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES. POWER
RESTORATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS, AND
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER TERM POWER
OUTAGES WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE COMPARABLE
TO THESE PAST EVENTS, KEEP IN MIND NO TWO STORMS ARE ALIKE AND
SHIFTS IN MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT OVER SNOW
TOTALS AND WHO SEES WHAT. NO MATTER HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT
WILL NOT MELT QUICKLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE 10-20F, POTENTIALLY
SINGLE DIGIT IN AREAS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK, TOMORROW
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SUB-ZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING TOMORROW AND A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION, AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE, MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS
WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW INTO SUN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12, ESPECIALLY FOR
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ALL COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED
REMAIN IN EFFECT; WARNINGS ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OBX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FT OF
INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND LEVEL). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES FOR A THREAT
FOR 1-2 FT INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AS STRONG NE TO N
WINDS PILE UP WATER ALONG THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE. AT THIS TIME,
GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND
SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR
WATER RISES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
ALBEMARLE SOUND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
ADVERSE FLYING CONDITIONS WITH SUB- VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT ALL
TERMINALS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-35 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND 40-60 KT ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND
WINDS BECOMING NW GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KT INLAND AND 40-50 KT
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL PRODUCE CROSS WIND
CONCERNS AT ISO AND EWN RUNWAY 14R/32L.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MID NEXT WEEK,
THROUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL.
MARINE
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS SHOW NNE WINDS 20-40 KT GUSTING 30-50 KT,
WITH SEAS 10-15 FT. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS GUSTS FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS WHERE STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS REMAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF 6 HOUR WINDOW EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND COULD SEE
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (> 64KTS) OUTSIDE OF 15NM FROM THE
COAST. THE BRIEF DURATION AND LACK OF AREA COVERAGE PRECLUDED
ANY UPGRADE FROM STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE MARINE WARNINGS.
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TO 9-15 FT BY SUNSET TONIGHT,
REACHING 10-20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS FOR ALL MARINE TRAFFIC
THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
6+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
SET TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK, DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS YET AGAIN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/02 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 12 1971 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 13 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/03 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9 1917 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 12 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ045-080-081-094-194-
195.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ046-047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-135-137-230-
231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page