482
FXUS62 KMHX 151809
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LLWS.
MARINE...STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES OVER ENC TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GULF STATES TODAY, NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, AND
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN EASTWARD.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE AREA. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND THE OUTER BANKS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF
TOMORROW, AND COASTAL AREAS COULD GUST TO 25-40 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND IT, AND WE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS MONDAY, HEIGHTS
WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S
TUESDAY, LOW 70S WEDNESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BE NEAR RECORD IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST, IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY DUE TO THE FRIGID WATER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
WITH WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AS RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN ONGOING
SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE DROP
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR CIGS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO REDUCTIONS
TO VIS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 22Z. LLWS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF IMPACTS
FROM GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. A LOW-END TSRA RISK WILL
BE PRESENT INTO TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND RAIN TAPERS OFF, LOW CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RISING
CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY, BUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DEEPENING LOW
AND THE APPROACHING HIGH. BEST CASE SCENARIO BY THE AFTERNOON
SKIES START BREAKING UP AND RISING TO VFR LEVELS. MEANWHILE, THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO IS SUB-VFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BRINGS CALM WINDS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR IN TIME, THE CALM WINDS, CLEARING
SKIES, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING FOG CONCERNS TO INLAND EASTERN
NC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG OBX, NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW SUB-VFR CEILINGS TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LOWERING IN THE FORM OF FOG.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE LOW, WITH THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
REACHING GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KT (HIGHEST NEAR GULF STREAM) THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL REMAINING MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SURGE AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6-11 FT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SMALL CRAFT SEAS (> 6FT) WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
BACKSWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER, INCREASING SW WINDS, AND PERHAPS
SOME LINGERING BACKSWELL, WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ154-156.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK
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