408
FXUS62 KMHX 152357
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LLWS IMPACTS.
MARINE...STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES OVER ENC TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE GULF STATES TODAY, NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING, AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN EASTWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE AREA. 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE OUTER BANKS WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF
TOMORROW, AND COASTAL AREAS COULD GUST TO 25-40 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT, AND WE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS MONDAY,
HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S TUESDAY, LOW 70S WEDNESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BE NEAR RECORD IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST, IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY DUE TO
THE FRIGID WATER TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CIGS ARE QUICKLY MOVING INTO ENC FROM THE SW THIS EVENING.
THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
MOVING ENE OUT OF GEORGIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER, OR
JUST SOUTH OF, ENC TONIGHT, THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. NORTH OF THE LOW, WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VIS
WILL IMPACT ENC INTO MONDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL LTG STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ TO KEWN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP TS OUT OF THE TAFS THERE FOR NOW. THE PRIMARY
TSRA RISK LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED FROM KMRH TO KHSE AND POINTS
OFFSHORE TO THE SE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, THAT RISK WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY LLWS IMPACTS, MAINLY FOR RUNWAYS ALONG THE
OBX. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL RUNWAYS DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL, EVEN AWAY FROM THE OBX.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT I KEPT
THE TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW, AS LOW CIGS MAY BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN BLENDED GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK: MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BRINGS CALM WINDS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR IN TIME, THE CALM WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING FOG CONCERNS TO
INLAND EASTERN NC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG OBX, NORTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW SUB-VFR
CEILINGS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
LOWERING IN THE FORM OF FOG.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE LOW, WITH THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
REACHING GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KT (HIGHEST NEAR GULF STREAM) THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL REMAINING MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SURGE AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6-11 FT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SMALL CRAFT SEAS (> 6FT) WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
BACKSWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER, INCREASING SW WINDS, AND PERHAPS
SOME LINGERING BACKSWELL, WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...SGK
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