580
FXUS62 KMHX 161016
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
516 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LLWS IMPACTS NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE...STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NC COAST WILL
PULL AWAY FROM AREA TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING
THE AREA PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE BUT WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH INLAND AND 35-45 MPH ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW RAPIDLY SKIES CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST HIRES MODELS KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS
MOST OF ENC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE NOW OFFSHORE WITH ONLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. THE FRONT IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA, VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAPPENS, GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS (500-600 FT) ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL
TOMORROW EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
15-25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE
ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY LLWS IMPACTS,
MAINLY FOR RUNWAYS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TOMORROW, EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BRINGS CALM WINDS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR IN TIME, THE CALM WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING FOG CONCERNS TO
INLAND EASTERN NC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG OBX, NORTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW SUB-VFR
CEILINGS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
LOWERING IN THE FORM OF FOG.
MARINE
WILL SEE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND CAA RAMPS UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINING SOUNDS AND RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 6-10 FT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT BUT
LINGERING SWELL FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY KEEP
SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER INTO MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-150-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SK
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