427
FXUS62 KMHX 161746
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LLWS IMPACTS NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE...STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NC COAST WILL
PULL AWAY FROM AREA TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING
THE AREA PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE BUT WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH INLAND AND 35-45 MPH ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW RAPIDLY SKIES CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST HIRES MODELS KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS
MOST OF ENC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BLANKETING ENC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD
COVER SLOWLY BREAKING UP ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE CLOUD COVER
IS GOING TO PROGRESS IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, WITH MODELS SPLIT ON
CLEARING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VS PERSISTENT CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS AS THE LOW
OFFSHORE DEEPENS AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH, THE HIGH TO OUR WEST
WIL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER ENC, AND CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY BREAK APART THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CEILINGS, WE ARE SEEING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING
AS THEY VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO CALMING WINDS AND MOISTENED
SOILS, BUT HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE HANG ON TO OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE FOG. BEST CHANCE
OF CLEARING WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17, SO HAVE 3SM IN
TAFS IN THIS REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FOG FORECAST PREVENTED
ME FROM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE, DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING. IF FOG DOES FORM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, IT MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
WILL SEE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND CAA RAMPS UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINING SOUNDS AND RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 6-10 FT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT BUT
LINGERING SWELL FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY KEEP
SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER INTO MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-150-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page