666
FXUS62 KMHX 161827
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
COOLER, MAINLY IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS
TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BLANKETING ENC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD
COVER SLOWLY BREAKING UP ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE CLOUD COVER
IS GOING TO PROGRESS IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, WITH MODELS SPLIT ON
CLEARING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VS PERSISTENT CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS AS THE LOW
OFFSHORE DEEPENS AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH, THE HIGH TO OUR WEST
WIL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER ENC, AND CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY BREAK APART THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CEILINGS, WE ARE SEEING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING
AS THEY VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO CALMING WINDS AND MOISTENED
SOILS, BUT HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE HANG ON TO OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE FOG. BEST CHANCE
OF CLEARING WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17, SO HAVE 3SM IN
TAFS IN THIS REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FOG FORECAST PREVENTED
ME FROM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE, DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING. IF FOG DOES FORM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, IT MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS, WHILE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH ALL AREAS
SEEING WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO BACKSWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL STILL BE 6-10 FT TOMORROW MORNING,
AND WILL ONLY DROP TO 5-7 FT BY EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-
137-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ231.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK
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