412
FXUS62 KMHX 170123
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
823 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE REMOVED PAMLICO SOUND FROM SCA SUITE, AND HAVE SCA'S IN
EFFECT NOW FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
COOLER, MAINLY IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS
TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE DENSE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
KEPT DENSE FOG OUT OF FORECAST BUT DO HAVE VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO LIFR (3/4 MI) AFTER AROUND 09Z. IF FOG DOES FORM
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IT MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT, POTENTIALLY
LASTING UNTIL 14Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY): PREDOMINANTLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH ALL AREAS
SEEING WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO BACKSWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL STILL BE 6-10 FT TOMORROW MORNING,
AND WILL ONLY DROP TO 5-7 FT BY EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SGK
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