343
FXUS62 KMHX 171052
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
552 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING WHILE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING FOG HAS
DIMINISHED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS MORNING.
2) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORNING WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM RICHLANDS TO GREENVILLE. MEANWHILE,
TEMPS HAVE RISEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 33-37 DEGREES
LESSENING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING BUT FOG AND
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PATCHY
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP. TO THE EAST, A SHIELD OF
IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST IS SLOWLY CREEPING WESTWARD. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FOG POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO 09Z. WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
THERE'S ALSO CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG, SO OBS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
FOG WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MIX OUT TOMORROW MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. THEREAFTER, EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY): PREDOMINANTLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING
TO BRING SEAS AROUND 6-10 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE IS
A 2-3 FEET UNDERDONE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, BUT DO
EXPECT WAVES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SK
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